{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-03", "sentiment_read": "Nonfarm payrolls morning, with the entire jobs slate \u2014 payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, participation and claims \u2014 landing in a single release window, preceded by Fed speaker Daly and followed by factory orders and durables. Every instrument on the board carries a CHOP regime tag, and prior-day closes sit in the lower third of their ranges for NQ, ES, YM and GC, with RTY the lone mid-range close. The macro flags read as a positively sloped curve alongside loose financial conditions. Single-stock news is a grab-bag of contrarian analyst takes on beaten-down names, while insider filings cluster in NVDA and GOOGL. The overall mood is coiled and catalyst-dependent: a chop tape sitting on its overnight extremes ahead of the one release that can resolve it, with conditional level-reads suspended during each data blackout window.", "the_setup": "NQ: acceptance above the overnight high 30544.5 puts PDH 30807.75 in question above; rejection at 30544.5 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 30368.5 and the overnight low 30164.25 below as support. Between 30164.25 and 30544.5, rangebound, with the 30500 and 30250 magnets and the EMA cluster at 30395, 30423.2 and 30479.6 all inside that band. ES: acceptance above 6647 puts PDH 6684.75 in question above; rejection at 6647 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 6616.5 and 6517 below as support and the 6500 magnet beneath the overnight low. Between 6517 and 6647, rangebound. YM: acceptance above 46767 puts PDH 47036 in question above, with the 47000 magnet just inside that level; rejection at 46767 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 46480 and 46172 below as support and the 46750 and 46500 magnets inside the range. Between 46172 and 46767, rangebound. RTY: acceptance above 2558.4 puts PDH 2565.6 in question above; rejection at 2558.4 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 2529.3 and 2505.2 below as support and the 2500 magnet just under the overnight low. Between 2505.2 and 2558.4, rangebound, with ATR 17.4 roughly a third of that band. GC: acceptance above 5101 puts PDH 5175 in question above; rejection at 5101 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 4712.8 and 4705.6 below as support. Between 4705.6 and 5101, rangebound \u2014 a very wide band even against ATR 147.32 \u2014 with the 5000 and 4750 magnets and the EMA stack at 4799.83, 4791.97 and 4775.48 sitting inside it. Across all five, the overnight extremes are the edges to watch, and acceptance or rejection at those edges only carries weight outside the payrolls blackout.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 30807.75 / PDL 30368.5 / PDC 30395.25; ON range 30164.25\u201330544.5; ATR 118.3, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:30395 / 20:30423.2 / 50:30479.6; magnets 30500, 30250, 30750; PDC 30395.25 in lower third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 6684.75 / PDL 6616.5 / PDC 6629.75; ON range 6517\u20136647; ATR 27.98, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:6555.44 / 20:6577.44 / 50:6603.29; magnets 6750, 6500, 7000; PDC 6629.75 in lower third of PD range", "YM": "PDH 47036 / PDL 46480 / PDC 46645; ON range 46172\u201346767; ATR 215.93, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:46385.84 / 20:46449.54 / 50:46513.85; magnets 46750, 46500, 47000; PDC 46645 in lower third of PD range", "RTY": "PDH 2565.6 / PDL 2529.3 / PDC 2546.5; ON range 2505.2\u20132558.4; ATR 17.4, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:2521.71 / 20:2526.91 / 50:2529.52; magnets 2500, 2750, 2250; PDC 2546.5 in middle third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 5175 / PDL 4712.8 / PDC 4722.6; ON range 4705.6\u20135101; ATR 147.32, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4799.83 / 20:4791.97 / 50:4775.48; magnets 4750, 4500, 5000; PDC 4722.6 in lower third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 30807.75, "pdl": 30368.5, "pdc": 30395.25, "on_high": 30544.5, "on_low": 30164.25, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 30395.0, "20": 30423.2, "50": 30479.6 }, "atr": 118.3, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0, 30500.0, 30750.0, 31000.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 6684.75, "pdl": 6616.5, "pdc": 6629.75, "on_high": 6647.0, "on_low": 6517.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 6555.44, "20": 6577.44, "50": 6603.29 }, "atr": 27.98, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 6250.0, 6500.0, 6750.0, 7000.0 ] }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "pdh": 47036.0, "pdl": 46480.0, "pdc": 46645.0, "on_high": 46767.0, "on_low": 46172.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 46385.84, "20": 46449.54, "50": 46513.85 }, "atr": 215.93, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 45250.0, 45500.0, 45750.0, 46000.0, 46250.0, 46500.0, 46750.0, 47000.0, 47250.0, 47500.0 ] }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "pdh": 2565.6, "pdl": 2529.3, "pdc": 2546.5, "on_high": 2558.4, "on_low": 2505.2, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 2521.71, "20": 2526.91, "50": 2529.52 }, "atr": 17.4, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 2250.0, 2500.0, 2750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 5175.0, "pdl": 4712.8, "pdc": 4722.6, "on_high": 5101.0, "on_low": 4705.6, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4799.83, "20": 4791.97, "50": 4775.48 }, "atr": 147.32, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 4250.0, 4500.0, 4750.0, 5000.0, 5250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 712.6, "expiry": "2026-07-06", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 8.98, "expected_move_pct": 0.012602, "expected_move_1w": 19.32, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.027112, "atm_strike": 713.0, "max_pain": 725.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 729.0, "put_wall": 720.0, "net_gex": 263205222.22, "pcr_oi": 1.6755, "pcr_volume": 0.901, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 760.0, 10749.0 ], [ 729.0, 4359.0 ], [ 740.0, 3209.0 ], [ 730.0, 3183.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 560.0, 8517.0 ], [ 570.0, 5023.0 ], [ 690.0, 3878.0 ], [ 695.0, 3660.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 744.78, "expiry": "2026-07-06", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 4.41, "expected_move_pct": 0.005921, "expected_move_1w": 9.47, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.012715, "atm_strike": 745.0, "max_pain": 743.0, "gamma_flip": 749.2497, "call_wall": 750.0, "put_wall": 746.0, "net_gex": -428538901.65, "pcr_oi": 1.5396, "pcr_volume": 0.9424, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 750.0, 9487.0 ], [ 760.0, 8199.0 ], [ 773.0, 6399.0 ], [ 755.0, 5960.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 600.0, 58434.0 ], [ 680.0, 14557.0 ], [ 722.0, 8661.0 ], [ 735.0, 5567.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 527.88, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 7, "expected_move": 6.575, "expected_move_pct": 0.012455, "expected_move_1w": 10.4, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.019701, "atm_strike": 528.0, "max_pain": 519.0, "gamma_flip": 400.4355, "call_wall": 530.0, "put_wall": 525.0, "net_gex": -45573215.26, "pcr_oi": 0.8868, "pcr_volume": 1.6754, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 530.0, 2020.0 ], [ 550.0, 1120.0 ], [ 555.0, 1106.0 ], [ 536.0, 905.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 502.0, 1009.0 ], [ 520.0, 846.0 ], [ 525.0, 633.0 ], [ 495.0, 596.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 297.58, "expiry": "2026-07-06", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 2.815, "expected_move_pct": 0.00946, "expected_move_1w": 5.85, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.019659, "atm_strike": 298.0, "max_pain": 300.0, "gamma_flip": 180.0, "call_wall": 303.0, "put_wall": 296.0, "net_gex": 49537247.05, "pcr_oi": 1.8483, "pcr_volume": 0.7995, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 303.0, 6160.0 ], [ 304.0, 2774.0 ], [ 302.0, 1837.0 ], [ 310.0, 1565.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 288.0, 9709.0 ], [ 282.0, 3752.0 ], [ 285.0, 3344.0 ], [ 292.0, 2721.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 378.13, "expiry": "2026-07-06", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 5.745, "expected_move_pct": 0.015193, "expected_move_1w": 10.125, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.026777, "atm_strike": 378.0, "max_pain": 371.0, "gamma_flip": 378.1905, "call_wall": 380.0, "put_wall": 370.0, "net_gex": -12776720.63, "pcr_oi": 0.9819, "pcr_volume": 0.2014, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 400.0, 1751.0 ], [ 390.0, 1086.0 ], [ 500.0, 769.0 ], [ 380.0, 454.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 350.0, 3475.0 ], [ 370.0, 1559.0 ], [ 345.0, 1048.0 ], [ 355.0, 374.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-03", "trade_count": 403, "purchase_count": 228, "sale_count": 174, "exchange_count": 1, "purchase_notional_est": 8709618.0, "sale_notional_est": 10521088.5, "net_notional_est": -1811470.5, "index_purchase_count": 10, "index_sale_count": 12, "index_net_notional_est": -258501.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "AAPL", 6, 40501.0, 4, 2 ], [ "T", 5, 66501.5, 4, 1 ], [ "HUBB", 5, 47003.0, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "BWXT", 4, 81002.0, 4, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 4, 74002.5, 4, 0 ], [ "AMD", 4, 32002.0, 4, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-05-21", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "ORCL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-07", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ABBV", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "AMD", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ADI", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-19", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "FN", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "LITE", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-22", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "MU", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 30544.5 puts PDH 30807.75 in question above.", "Rejection at 30544.5 leaves it as resistance, with 30164.25 and PDL 30368.5 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 30164.25 puts PDL 30368.5 in question below.", "Between 30164.25 and 30544.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 6647 puts PDH 6684.75 in question above.", "Rejection at 6647 leaves it as resistance, with 6517 and PDL 6616.5 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 6517 puts PDL 6616.5 in question below.", "Between 6517 and 6647, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "YM": [ "Acceptance above ON high 46767 puts PDH 47036 in question above.", "Rejection at 46767 leaves it as resistance, with 46172 and PDL 46480 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 46172 puts PDL 46480 in question below.", "Between 46172 and 46767, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "RTY": [ "Acceptance above ON high 2558.4 puts PDH 2565.6 in question above.", "Rejection at 2558.4 leaves it as resistance, with 2505.2 and PDL 2529.3 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 2505.2 puts PDL 2529.3 in question below.", "Between 2505.2 and 2558.4, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 5101 puts PDH 5175 in question above.", "Rejection at 5101 leaves it as resistance, with 4705.6 and PDL 4712.8 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4705.6 puts PDL 4712.8 in question below.", "Between 4705.6 and 5101, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "YM": "YM.png", "RTY": "RTY.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "05:00 BST \u2014 Total Vehicle Sales (blackout 04:55\u201305:05)", "08:45 BST \u2014 FOMC Member Daly Speaks (blackout 08:40\u201308:50)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Average Hourly Earnings (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Average Weekly Hours (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Continuing Jobless Claims (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Government Payrolls (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Initial Jobless Claims (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Manufacturing Payrolls (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Nonfarm Payrolls (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Participation Rate (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 U6 Unemployment Rate (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Unemployment Rate (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "11:00 BST \u2014 All Car Sales (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 All Truck Sales (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Durables Excluding Defense (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Durables Excluding Transport (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Factory Orders (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Factory orders ex transportation (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Natural Gas Storage (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 4-Week Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 8-Week Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "14:00 BST \u2014 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (blackout 13:55\u201314:05)", "14:00 BST \u2014 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (blackout 13:55\u201314:05)", "17:30 BST \u2014 Fed's Balance Sheet (blackout 17:25\u201317:35)", "17:30 BST \u2014 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (blackout 17:25\u201317:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "NVDA 8-K (items 5.02) \u2014 filed Jul 02", "NVDA 8-K (items 5.07) \u2014 filed Jun 30", "AMZN: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "GOOGL: 8 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "MSFT: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "NVDA: 9 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Could Canopy Growth Stock Deliver a 4X Gain? 1 Analyst Thinks So. [Yahoo]", "Comcast (CMCSA) Stock Has Fallen 50%, Why Are Analysts Suddenly Turning Bullish On The Stock? [Yahoo]", "Travel Headwinds Result In Attractive Valuation For Global Payments (GPN) Stocks [Yahoo]", "Here\u2019s Why Analysts Are Still Bullish On Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Despite The Selloff [Yahoo]", "Wall Street Is Losing Confidence In PVH Corp (PVH), Is The Stock A Buy? [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "YM", "RTY", "GC" ] }