{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-07", "sentiment_read": "Overnight tone is muted and mixed: all three instruments carry a CHOP regime tag, with ATRs of 105.34 on NQ, 11.68 on ES and 13.01 on GC framing a modest expected-nothing tape \u2014 ES closed in the upper third of its prior-day range while NQ and GC closed mid-range, an undecided finish. The macro backdrop reads calm rather than stressed: the yield curve is positively sloped and financial conditions are loose. The calendar is services-heavy \u2014 S&P Global composite and services PMIs late morning, the full ISM services suite at the top of the hour after, Fed Waller remarks midday, then bill auctions and the afternoon CFTC positioning batch; those windows are the session's event risk. Headlines are quiet and earnings-preview driven (Meta among them), and insider filing activity in GOOGL, META and NVDA is background context rather than a catalyst. In short: a range-carrying overnight session into a data-dense morning, with mood defined by waiting rather than conviction.", "the_setup": "NQ: between 29557.5 and 29916.75, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch, with the 29750 magnet, PDC 29852.25 and the EMA cluster at 29744.87, 29809.06 and 29859.49 all inside the range. Acceptance above 29916.75 puts PDH 30094 in question above, with the 30000 magnet between them; rejection at 29916.75 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 29683.25 and 29557.5 below as support. Acceptance below 29557.5 puts the 29500 magnet in question below. ES: between 7563 and 7595.5, rangebound, with the EMAs compressed at 7577.32, 7576.21 and 7565.21 and PDC 7585.75 sitting between 7563 and 7595.5. Acceptance above 7595.5 puts PDH 7602.25 in question above; rejection at 7595.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7563 and PDL 7538 below as support. Acceptance below 7563 puts PDL 7538 in question below, with the 7500 magnet beneath as support. GC: between 4127.7 and 4174.4, rangebound \u2014 PDC 4168.5 and the EMAs at 4148.38, 4156.67 and 4153.92 sit inside. Acceptance above 4174.4 puts PDH 4215.9 in question above, with the 4250 magnet beyond that; rejection at 4174.4 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 4140.5 and 4127.7 below as support. Acceptance below 4127.7 puts PDL 4140.5 in question as overhead. Across all three, the late-morning services data and the midday Waller remarks are the windows where acceptance or rejection at these edges gets decided; until then, rangebound between the ON extremes is the map.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 30094 / PDL 29683.25 / PDC 29852.25; ON range 29557.5\u201329916.75; ATR 105.34, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:29744.87 / 20:29809.06 / 50:29859.49; magnets 29750, 30000, 29500; PDC 29852.25 in middle third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7602.25 / PDL 7538 / PDC 7585.75; ON range 7563\u20137595.5; ATR 11.68, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7577.32 / 20:7576.21 / 50:7565.21; magnets 7500, 7750, 7250; PDC 7585.75 in upper third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4215.9 / PDL 4140.5 / PDC 4168.5; ON range 4127.7\u20134174.4; ATR 13.01, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4148.38 / 20:4156.67 / 50:4153.92; magnets 4250, 4000, 3750; PDC 4168.5 in middle third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 30094.0, "pdl": 29683.25, "pdc": 29852.25, "on_high": 29916.75, "on_low": 29557.5, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 29744.87, "20": 29809.06, "50": 29859.49 }, "atr": 105.34, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0, 30500.0, 30750.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7602.25, "pdl": 7538.0, "pdc": 7585.75, "on_high": 7595.5, "on_low": 7563.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7577.32, "20": 7576.21, "50": 7565.21 }, "atr": 11.68, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4215.9, "pdl": 4140.5, "pdc": 4168.5, "on_high": 4174.4, "on_low": 4127.7, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4148.38, "20": 4156.67, "50": 4153.92 }, "atr": 13.01, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 709.43, "expiry": "2026-07-07", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 1.08, "expected_move_pct": 0.001522, "expected_move_1w": 18.01, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.025387, "atm_strike": 709.0, "max_pain": 724.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 710.0, "put_wall": 709.0, "net_gex": 948778147.55, "pcr_oi": 1.6366, "pcr_volume": 1.0684, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 730.0, 8411.0 ], [ 725.0, 5775.0 ], [ 727.0, 4501.0 ], [ 740.0, 4426.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 500.0, 16046.0 ], [ 724.0, 9616.0 ], [ 710.0, 6696.0 ], [ 700.0, 6047.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 747.71, "expiry": "2026-07-07", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.525, "expected_move_pct": 0.000702, "expected_move_1w": 9.07, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.01213, "atm_strike": 748.0, "max_pain": 749.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 748.0, "put_wall": 748.0, "net_gex": 3157202650.6, "pcr_oi": 0.9497, "pcr_volume": 1.1328, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 753.0, 26947.0 ], [ 751.0, 18881.0 ], [ 755.0, 16642.0 ], [ 760.0, 15722.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 750.0, 18280.0 ], [ 745.0, 17483.0 ], [ 748.0, 12880.0 ], [ 747.0, 11187.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 528.45, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 4.345, "expected_move_pct": 0.008222, "expected_move_1w": 8.075, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.015281, "atm_strike": 528.0, "max_pain": 525.0, "gamma_flip": 374.43, "call_wall": 530.0, "put_wall": 525.0, "net_gex": -109118764.9, "pcr_oi": 0.7179, "pcr_volume": 1.1735, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 538.0, 5517.0 ], [ 536.0, 3869.0 ], [ 537.0, 2461.0 ], [ 530.0, 2245.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 520.0, 3679.0 ], [ 525.0, 2058.0 ], [ 502.0, 1007.0 ], [ 524.0, 773.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 296.19, "expiry": "2026-07-07", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.22, "expected_move_pct": 0.000743, "expected_move_1w": 5.98, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.02019, "atm_strike": 296.0, "max_pain": 299.0, "gamma_flip": 201.1724, "call_wall": 296.0, "put_wall": 296.0, "net_gex": 170882944.92, "pcr_oi": 0.9278, "pcr_volume": 0.9862, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 302.0, 6715.0 ], [ 301.0, 5261.0 ], [ 304.0, 3135.0 ], [ 303.0, 3112.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 291.0, 2952.0 ], [ 298.0, 2881.0 ], [ 299.0, 2837.0 ], [ 300.0, 2348.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 377.49, "expiry": "2026-07-08", "dte": 1, "expected_move": 4.405, "expected_move_pct": 0.011669, "expected_move_1w": 8.3, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.021987, "atm_strike": 377.0, "max_pain": 376.0, "gamma_flip": 383.9144, "call_wall": 380.0, "put_wall": 376.0, "net_gex": -5139362.63, "pcr_oi": 0.7841, "pcr_volume": 1.0793, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 425.0, 1842.0 ], [ 385.0, 1463.0 ], [ 390.0, 762.0 ], [ 388.0, 494.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 357.0, 1068.0 ], [ 376.0, 682.0 ], [ 365.0, 605.0 ], [ 363.0, 565.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-07", "trade_count": 397, "purchase_count": 224, "sale_count": 172, "exchange_count": 1, "purchase_notional_est": 8677616.0, "sale_notional_est": 10505087.5, "net_notional_est": -1827471.5, "index_purchase_count": 9, "index_sale_count": 12, "index_net_notional_est": -266501.5, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "T", 5, 66501.5, 4, 1 ], [ "HUBB", 5, 47003.0, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "AAPL", 5, 32500.5, 3, 2 ], [ "BWXT", 4, 81002.0, 4, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 4, 74002.5, 4, 0 ], [ "AMD", 4, 32002.0, 4, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-05-21", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "ORCL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-07", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ABBV", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "AMD", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ADI", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-19", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "FN", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "LITE", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-22", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "MU", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 29916.75 puts PDH 30094 in question above.", "Rejection at 29916.75 leaves it as resistance, with 29557.5 and PDL 29683.25 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 29557.5 puts PDL 29683.25 in question below.", "Between 29557.5 and 29916.75, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7595.5 puts PDH 7602.25 in question above.", "Rejection at 7595.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7563 and PDL 7538 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7563 puts PDL 7538 in question below.", "Between 7563 and 7595.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4174.4 puts PDH 4215.9 in question above.", "Rejection at 4174.4 leaves it as resistance, with 4127.7 and PDL 4140.5 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4127.7 puts PDL 4140.5 in question below.", "Between 4127.7 and 4174.4, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "10:45 BST \u2014 S&P Global Composite PMI (blackout 10:40\u201310:50)", "10:45 BST \u2014 S&P Global Services PMI (blackout 10:40\u201310:50)", "11:00 BST \u2014 CB Employment Trends Index (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "12:00 BST \u2014 Fed Waller Speaks (blackout 11:55\u201312:05)", "12:30 BST \u2014 3-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 6-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Copper speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Corn speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Gold speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Silver speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)", "16:30 BST \u2014 CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (blackout 16:25\u201316:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "META: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "PTC Inc. Earnings Preview: What to Expect [Yahoo]", "What You Need to Know Ahead of Meta Platforms' Earnings Release [Yahoo]", "Tyler Technologies' Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know [Yahoo]", "Why Munis Matter in 2026 & Where to Find Yield [Yahoo]", "Is Microsoft Stock Too Cheap Here? One Play is to Short Cash-Secured MSFT Puts [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }