{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-08", "sentiment_read": "Mood is muted and compressed: every instrument on the board carries a CHOP regime tag, each closed in the lower third of its prior-day range, and overnight trade held inside the prior session's extremes. The calendar is dense but second-tier \u2014 Bowman remarks around the London open, the weekly ADP print, trade data, GDPNow, and a Treasury note auction in the US afternoon \u2014 a drip of catalysts rather than a single focal point, each with its own blackout window. The yield curve is positively sloped and financial conditions read loose; headline flow is quiet and single-stock in character, with insider filings clustered at Google, Meta, and Nvidia the only filing activity of note. ATRs of 123.79 on NQ, 14.38 on ES, and 17.09 on GC frame a low-energy tape where the overnight edges carry more information than the news flow.", "the_setup": "NQ: between 29266 and 29558, rangebound \u2014 those extremes are the edges to watch, with PDC 29300.5 near the lower edge and the EMA band at 29406.43, 29472.09, and 29619.19 running through and above the range. Acceptance above 29558 puts PDH 29916.75 in question above; rejection at 29558 leaves it as resistance, with 29266 and PDL 29209.75 below as support. Acceptance below 29266 puts 29209.75 in question below, with the 29250 magnet in that zone, 29500 inside the range, and 29000 farther below. ES: between 7532.5 and 7563, rangebound, with PDC 7539 near the lower edge and the EMAs at 7549.28, 7555.61, and 7560.09 stacked through the range. Acceptance above 7563 puts PDH 7595.5 in question above; rejection at 7563 leaves it as resistance, with 7532.5 and PDL 7529.5 below as support. Acceptance below 7532.5 puts 7529.5 in question below, with the 7500 magnet farther below. GC: between 4106.8 and 4146.4, rangebound, with PDC 4108.7 near the lower edge and the EMAs at 4132.04, 4136.57, and 4144.04 sitting just under the upper edge. Acceptance above 4146.4 puts PDH 4192.6 in question above; rejection at 4146.4 leaves it as resistance, with 4106.8 and PDL 4102.4 below as support. Acceptance below 4106.8 puts 4102.4 in question below, with the 4000 magnet farther below and 4250 farther above. Around each timeline release, the stated blackout windows apply; the Bowman remarks and the note auction bracket the session's calendar.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 29916.75 / PDL 29209.75 / PDC 29300.5; ON range 29266\u201329558; ATR 123.79, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:29406.43 / 20:29472.09 / 50:29619.19; magnets 29250, 29500, 29000; PDC 29300.5 in lower third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7595.5 / PDL 7529.5 / PDC 7539; ON range 7532.5\u20137563; ATR 14.38, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7549.28 / 20:7555.61 / 50:7560.09; magnets 7500, 7750, 7250; PDC 7539 in lower third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4192.6 / PDL 4102.4 / PDC 4108.7; ON range 4106.8\u20134146.4; ATR 17.09, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4132.04 / 20:4136.57 / 50:4144.04; magnets 4000, 4250, 3750; PDC 4108.7 in lower third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 29916.75, "pdl": 29209.75, "pdc": 29300.5, "on_high": 29558.0, "on_low": 29266.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 29406.43, "20": 29472.09, "50": 29619.19 }, "atr": 123.79, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0, 30500.0, 30750.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7595.5, "pdl": 7529.5, "pdc": 7539.0, "on_high": 7563.0, "on_low": 7532.5, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7549.28, "20": 7555.61, "50": 7560.09 }, "atr": 14.38, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4192.6, "pdl": 4102.4, "pdc": 4108.7, "on_high": 4146.4, "on_low": 4106.8, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4132.04, "20": 4136.57, "50": 4144.04 }, "atr": 17.09, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 711.44, "expiry": "2026-07-08", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.78, "expected_move_pct": 0.001096, "expected_move_1w": 17.995, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.025294, "atm_strike": 711.0, "max_pain": 710.0, "gamma_flip": 706.9269, "call_wall": 712.0, "put_wall": 710.0, "net_gex": -653941367.24, "pcr_oi": 1.4756, "pcr_volume": 1.1608, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 715.0, 7281.0 ], [ 725.0, 6885.0 ], [ 720.0, 6784.0 ], [ 724.0, 6247.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 550.0, 17832.0 ], [ 700.0, 7885.0 ], [ 695.0, 7831.0 ], [ 699.0, 7704.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 745.4, "expiry": "2026-07-08", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.43, "expected_move_pct": 0.000577, "expected_move_1w": 10.29, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.013805, "atm_strike": 745.0, "max_pain": 747.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 746.0, "put_wall": 745.0, "net_gex": 2582911554.13, "pcr_oi": 1.0789, "pcr_volume": 1.1636, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 750.0, 13147.0 ], [ 754.0, 12168.0 ], [ 749.0, 11427.0 ], [ 753.0, 10586.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 711.0, 16594.0 ], [ 745.0, 12359.0 ], [ 740.0, 10535.0 ], [ 747.0, 9199.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 522.77, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 2, "expected_move": 3.995, "expected_move_pct": 0.007642, "expected_move_1w": 8.2, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.015686, "atm_strike": 523.0, "max_pain": 525.0, "gamma_flip": 360.0, "call_wall": 525.0, "put_wall": 520.0, "net_gex": 111586349.62, "pcr_oi": 0.7462, "pcr_volume": 1.5772, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 538.0, 5374.0 ], [ 536.0, 3904.0 ], [ 530.0, 2704.0 ], [ 537.0, 2229.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 520.0, 3830.0 ], [ 525.0, 2107.0 ], [ 502.0, 1007.0 ], [ 515.0, 997.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 293.48, "expiry": "2026-07-08", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.365, "expected_move_pct": 0.001244, "expected_move_1w": 6.43, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.021909, "atm_strike": 293.0, "max_pain": 297.0, "gamma_flip": 230.0, "call_wall": 300.0, "put_wall": 293.0, "net_gex": 196823898.46, "pcr_oi": 1.5122, "pcr_volume": 1.2419, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 300.0, 7098.0 ], [ 310.0, 5631.0 ], [ 299.0, 3033.0 ], [ 303.0, 2520.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 291.0, 7919.0 ], [ 273.0, 4523.0 ], [ 274.0, 4490.0 ], [ 280.0, 3692.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 374.45, "expiry": "2026-07-08", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 0.665, "expected_move_pct": 0.001776, "expected_move_1w": 10.8, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.028842, "atm_strike": 374.0, "max_pain": 379.0, "gamma_flip": 292.9621, "call_wall": 375.0, "put_wall": 375.0, "net_gex": 49041007.58, "pcr_oi": 0.9797, "pcr_volume": 1.9607, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 425.0, 1842.0 ], [ 385.0, 1753.0 ], [ 390.0, 1304.0 ], [ 395.0, 988.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 376.0, 1511.0 ], [ 380.0, 1316.0 ], [ 357.0, 1301.0 ], [ 378.0, 966.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-08", "trade_count": 407, "purchase_count": 230, "sale_count": 176, "exchange_count": 1, "purchase_notional_est": 8750119.0, "sale_notional_est": 10610589.5, "net_notional_est": -1860470.5, "index_purchase_count": 9, "index_sale_count": 15, "index_net_notional_est": -364003.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "AAPL", 7, -32500.5, 3, 4 ], [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "T", 5, 66501.5, 4, 1 ], [ "HUBB", 5, 47003.0, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "NVDA", 4, -390502.0, 0, 4 ], [ "BWXT", 4, 81002.0, 4, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 4, 74002.5, 4, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-05-21", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-30", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "COHR", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-25", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "ORCL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-07", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ABBV", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "AMD", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-05", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 29558 puts PDH 29916.75 in question above.", "Rejection at 29558 leaves it as resistance, with 29266 and PDL 29209.75 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 29266 puts PDL 29209.75 in question below.", "Between 29266 and 29558, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7563 puts PDH 7595.5 in question above.", "Rejection at 7563 leaves it as resistance, with 7532.5 and PDL 7529.5 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7532.5 puts PDL 7529.5 in question below.", "Between 7532.5 and 7563, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4146.4 puts PDH 4192.6 in question above.", "Rejection at 4146.4 leaves it as resistance, with 4106.8 and PDL 4102.4 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4106.8 puts PDL 4102.4 in question below.", "Between 4106.8 and 4146.4, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "08:00 BST \u2014 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "09:14 BST \u2014 ADP Employment Change Weekly (blackout 09:09\u201309:19)", "09:15 BST \u2014 ADP Employment Change Weekly (blackout 09:10\u201309:20)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Exports (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Imports (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Trade Balance (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:55 BST \u2014 Redbook (blackout 09:50\u201310:00)", "11:00 BST \u2014 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "12:00 BST \u2014 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (blackout 11:55\u201312:05)", "12:30 BST \u2014 52-Week Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "13:00 BST \u2014 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (blackout 12:55\u201313:05)", "14:00 BST \u2014 3-Year Note Auction (blackout 13:55\u201314:05)", "17:30 BST \u2014 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (blackout 17:25\u201317:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "META: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Here's What to Expect From Ventas\u2019 Next Earnings Report [Yahoo]", "Binance Offers Yield To Bitcoin Owners [Yahoo]", "Berkshire Hathaway Stock Rallied Last Month But Don\u2019t Expect Fireworks in H2 [Yahoo]", "Market Update: CMCSA, GAP [Yahoo]", "Cramer Says Forget the Data-Center Darlings. This \u2018Boring\u2019 AI Stock at 22x Is the Buy. [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }