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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-09 · context & synthesis, not a signal
RISK-OFF
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · Atlanta Fed GDPNow, FOMC Meeting Minutes
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ holds a compressed shelf: the fast, medium, and slow EMAs sit at 29512.56, 29443.16, and 29477.4, PDC 29492 rests in the upper third of the prior day's range, and ATR is 122.48 in a CHOP regime. Acceptance above the overnight high 29643.25 puts PDH 29558 in question above; rejection at 29643.25 leaves it as resistance, with 29396 and PDL 28910.25 below as support. Acceptance below 29396 puts PDL 28910.25 in question below; between 29396 and 29643.25, rangebound, with magnets at 29500, 29250, and 29750 around the structure. ES is the tightest map on the board: between 7524.75 and 7554 overnight against an ATR of 16.43, PDC 7527.25 in the middle third, and EMAs braided together at 7538.12, 7531.54, and 7537.45 inside the range. Acceptance above 7554 puts PDH 7563 in question above; rejection at 7554 leaves it as resistance, with 7524.75 and PDL 7468.25 below as support; acceptance below 7524.75 puts PDL 7468.25 in question below, with the 7500 magnet beneath the range. GC carries the geopolitical tape: between 4063.3 and 4117.7 overnight, PDC 4086 in the middle third, the two faster EMAs at 4088.28 and 4088.77 mid-range and the slower EMA at 4106.19 in the upper portion of the overnight range. Acceptance above 4117.7 puts PDH 4146.4 in question above; rejection at 4117.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4063.3 and PDL 4032.3 below as support; acceptance below 4063.3 puts PDL 4032.3 in question below, with the 4000 magnet under the structure. Around the crude data, the note auction, and the minutes, prints inside the blackout windows are noise until acceptance or rejection at these stated edges resolves the day.
NQ
CHOP
upper third of range
Overnight range
29396 — 29643.2
PDH29558
PDL28910.2
Prior close29492
ATR122.48
EMA929512.6EMA2029443.2EMA5029477.4
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 0.77 · 0.11%
Exp. move 1w± 16.575 · 2.29%
Gamma flip702.442
Net GEX (est.)$-2.13bn · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall715
Put gamma wall723
Max pain711
P/C (OI)1.3969
P/C (vol)1.0693
Heaviest call OI715 · 710 · 725 · 720
Heaviest put OI715 · 510 · 710 · 700
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29643.25 puts PDH 29558 in question above.
- Rejection at 29643.25 leaves it as resistance, with 29396 and PDL 28910.25 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 29396 puts PDL 28910.25 in question below.
- Between 29396 and 29643.25, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
below EMA stack
middle third of range
Overnight range
7524.75 — 7554
PDH7563
PDL7468.25
Prior close7527.25
ATR16.43
EMA97538.12EMA207531.54EMA507537.45
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 0.41 · 0.05%
Exp. move 1w± 9.15 · 1.22%
Gamma flip744.689
Net GEX (est.)$-5.15bn · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall752
Put gamma wall752
Max pain745
P/C (OI)1.2518
P/C (vol)1.0075
Heaviest call OI750 · 751 · 746 · 745
Heaviest put OI740 · 744 · 743 · 745
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7554 puts PDH 7563 in question above.
- Rejection at 7554 leaves it as resistance, with 7524.75 and PDL 7468.25 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7524.75 puts PDL 7468.25 in question below.
- Between 7524.75 and 7554, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
below EMA stack
middle third of range
Overnight range
4063.3 — 4117.7
PDH4146.4
PDL4032.3
Prior close4086
ATR17.32
EMA94088.28EMA204088.77EMA504106.19
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 3.955 · 1.05%
Exp. move 1w± 8.725 · 2.31%
Gamma flip321.009
Net GEX (est.)$-78m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall380
Put gamma wall375
Max pain375
P/C (OI)0.9487
P/C (vol)0.7237
Heaviest call OI395 · 390 · 425 · 375
Heaviest put OI350 · 355 · 345 · 351
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4117.7 puts PDH 4146.4 in question above.
- Rejection at 4117.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4063.3 and PDL 4032.3 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 4063.3 puts PDL 4032.3 in question below.
- Between 4063.3 and 4117.7, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
426 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$1.74M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
243
$8.93M est.
Sales
182
$10.67M est.
Index-relevant net
-$364K
9 buys · 15 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
HUBB
10 filings · 10B/0S
$87K
AAPL
7 filings · 3B/4S
-$33K
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
T
5 filings · 4B/1S
$67K
BEP
5 filings · 5B/0S
$65K
BIIB
5 filings · 4B/1S
$59K
ENTG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Tim Moore
· SALE T
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· PURCHASE COHR
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE ORCL
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
8 windows08:00 BST
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
+4 more at this time
BLACKOUT 07:55–08:05
11:00 BST
Wholesale Inventories
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
11:30 BST
Crude Oil Inventories
+9 more at this time
BLACKOUT 11:25–11:35
12:00 BST
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI
BLACKOUT 11:55–12:05
12:30 BST
Atlanta Fed GDPNowTIER-1
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
14:00 BST
10-Year Note Auction
BLACKOUT 13:55–14:05
15:00 BST
FOMC Meeting MinutesTIER-1
BLACKOUT 14:55–15:05
16:00 BST
Consumer Credit
BLACKOUT 15:55–16:05
Material Filings
- AMZN 8-K (items 8.01, 9.01) — filed Jul 09
- GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- META: 2 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
Overnight Digest
- Middle East Conflict Drives Safe-Haven Flows to US Dollar [Yahoo]
- What to Expect From KLA Corporation's Q4 2026 Earnings Report [Yahoo]
- What to Expect From Edison International's Q2 2026 Earnings Report [Yahoo]
- Can a $25,000 Investment in SoFi Stock Make You a Millionaire? [Yahoo]
- Intel stock is currently trading at a level not seen even during the dot-com bubble [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
The overnight mood is cautious and event-dense rather than directional: headlines describe Middle East conflict driving safe-haven flows into the dollar, and the calendar stacks mortgage data, wholesale inventories, crude inventories, a Treasury note auction, and the FOMC minutes into a single session. All three tracked instruments print a CHOP regime, with ATRs of 122.48 on NQ, 16.43 on ES, and 17.32 on GC framing what a normal day covers — and the ES overnight range is a small fraction of that, so the tape has coiled ahead of the releases. The curve flag reads positive and financial conditions read loose, a backdrop of ample liquidity rather than stress. The corporate tape is quiet — a current-report filing from Amazon and scattered insider filings at GOOGL, META, and NVDA — so macro prints and the minutes are the mood-setters. Blackout windows bracket each release; the minutes in the afternoon are the point where the day's map is most open to being redrawn.