{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-10", "generated_at": "2026-07-09T22:32:24+00:00", "sentiment_read": "All three instruments come in under a CHOP regime \u2014 NQ ATR 116.54, ES 16.32, GC 13.79 \u2014 with each closing in the upper third of the prior day's range and overnight highs sitting just under prior-day highs, so the map is compressed at the top of the recent structure. The undertone is calm: the yield curve is positively sloped, financial conditions are loose, and refinery names led the tape on ceasefire headlines. The catalyst docket is dense rather than heavy \u2014 jobless claims in the London morning, Fed speakers Williams and Logan, home sales data, and a long-bond auction in the early afternoon \u2014 each a discrete volatility window punctuating an otherwise rangebound backdrop. Corporate flow is quiet: an Amazon current-events filing and routine insider filings at Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia.", "the_setup": "NQ: acceptance above the overnight high 29973.75 puts PDH 29993.25 in question above, with the 30000 magnet just beyond; rejection at 29973.75 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 29875.45 and 29750.64 and PDL 29396 below as support; between 29396 and 29973.75, rangebound \u2014 those extremes are the edges to watch. ES: acceptance above the overnight high 7592 puts PDH 7595 in question above; rejection at 7592 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 7576.15 and 7561.13 as support ahead of PDL 7524.75, where the overnight low and prior-day low coincide; acceptance below 7524.75 puts the 7500 magnet in question below; between 7524.75 and 7592, rangebound. GC: acceptance above the overnight high 4135.2 puts PDH 4148.8 in question above; rejection at 4135.2 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 4131.03 and 4120.23 as nearby support and PDL 4063.3 as the lower edge; acceptance below 4063.3 puts that level in question as lost support; between 4063.3 and 4135.2, rangebound. Across all three, the claims release, the Fed remarks, and the long-bond auction are the windows where acceptance or rejection at these edges gets decided \u2014 prints inside the blackout windows around each event deserve caution.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 29993.25 / PDL 29396 / PDC 29930.75; ON range 29396\u201329973.75; ATR 116.54, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:29875.45 / 20:29750.64 / 50:29626.63; magnets 30000, 29750, 30250; PDC 29930.75 in upper third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7595 / PDL 7524.75 / PDC 7586.25; ON range 7524.75\u20137592; ATR 16.32, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7576.15 / 20:7561.13 / 50:7549.97; magnets 7500, 7750, 7250; PDC 7586.25 in upper third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4148.8 / PDL 4063.3 / PDC 4132.7; ON range 4063.3\u20134135.2; ATR 13.79, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4131.03 / 20:4120.23 / 50:4115.86; magnets 4250, 4000, 3750; PDC 4132.7 in upper third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 29993.25, "pdl": 29396.0, "pdc": 29930.75, "on_high": 29973.75, "on_low": 29396.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 29875.45, "20": 29750.64, "50": 29626.63 }, "atr": 116.54, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 28750.0, 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0, 30500.0, 30750.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7595.0, "pdl": 7524.75, "pdc": 7586.25, "on_high": 7592.0, "on_low": 7524.75, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7576.15, "20": 7561.13, "50": 7549.97 }, "atr": 16.32, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4148.8, "pdl": 4063.3, "pdc": 4132.7, "on_high": 4135.2, "on_low": 4063.3, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4131.03, "20": 4120.23, "50": 4115.86 }, "atr": 13.79, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 723.28, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 6.92, "expected_move_pct": 0.009568, "expected_move_1w": 18.82, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.02602, "atm_strike": 723.0, "max_pain": 715.0, "gamma_flip": 523.573, "call_wall": 730.0, "put_wall": 720.0, "net_gex": -802828878.17, "pcr_oi": 1.4889, "pcr_volume": 1.01, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 730.0, 13241.0 ], [ 750.0, 10657.0 ], [ 720.0, 8676.0 ], [ 725.0, 7542.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 480.0, 25415.0 ], [ 625.0, 20939.0 ], [ 700.0, 18210.0 ], [ 670.0, 10326.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 751.71, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 3.42, "expected_move_pct": 0.00455, "expected_move_1w": 9.69, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.012891, "atm_strike": 752.0, "max_pain": 745.0, "gamma_flip": 487.6237, "call_wall": 750.0, "put_wall": 750.0, "net_gex": -3316390381.95, "pcr_oi": 1.4421, "pcr_volume": 0.9959, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 760.0, 33172.0 ], [ 750.0, 22521.0 ], [ 755.0, 14362.0 ], [ 748.0, 9230.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 740.0, 28609.0 ], [ 700.0, 17993.0 ], [ 540.0, 16356.0 ], [ 720.0, 13125.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 524.19, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 2.3, "expected_move_pct": 0.004388, "expected_move_1w": 6.85, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.013068, "atm_strike": 524.0, "max_pain": 524.0, "gamma_flip": 360.0, "call_wall": 525.0, "put_wall": 525.0, "net_gex": 65734283.07, "pcr_oi": 0.6683, "pcr_volume": 1.01, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 538.0, 5354.0 ], [ 536.0, 3839.0 ], [ 530.0, 3022.0 ], [ 537.0, 2199.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 520.0, 2396.0 ], [ 525.0, 1802.0 ], [ 502.0, 1002.0 ], [ 524.0, 939.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 297.24, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 2.21, "expected_move_pct": 0.007435, "expected_move_1w": 6.13, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.020623, "atm_strike": 297.0, "max_pain": 296.0, "gamma_flip": 278.4543, "call_wall": 300.0, "put_wall": 298.0, "net_gex": -41095209.05, "pcr_oi": 1.2794, "pcr_volume": 1.1397, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 300.0, 19802.0 ], [ 302.0, 9570.0 ], [ 311.0, 9012.0 ], [ 305.0, 8687.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 294.0, 11177.0 ], [ 287.5, 9555.0 ], [ 288.0, 7520.0 ], [ 290.0, 7002.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 378.18, "expiry": "2026-07-10", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 3.955, "expected_move_pct": 0.010458, "expected_move_1w": 10.375, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.027434, "atm_strike": 378.0, "max_pain": 375.0, "gamma_flip": 321.0085, "call_wall": 380.0, "put_wall": 375.0, "net_gex": -77840644.18, "pcr_oi": 0.9487, "pcr_volume": 0.7237, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 395.0, 11793.0 ], [ 390.0, 4014.0 ], [ 425.0, 3432.0 ], [ 375.0, 2867.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 350.0, 12720.0 ], [ 355.0, 10708.0 ], [ 345.0, 3076.0 ], [ 351.0, 2796.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-10", "trade_count": 429, "purchase_count": 245, "sale_count": 183, "exchange_count": 1, "purchase_notional_est": 8943626.5, "sale_notional_est": 10673593.5, "net_notional_est": -1729967.0, "index_purchase_count": 9, "index_sale_count": 15, "index_net_notional_est": -364003.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "HUBB", 10, 87005.5, 10, 0 ], [ "AAPL", 7, -32500.5, 3, 4 ], [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "T", 5, 66501.5, 4, 1 ], [ "BEP", 5, 64502.5, 5, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 5, 59001.5, 4, 1 ], [ "ENTG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-21", "disclosure_date": "2026-05-21", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-30", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "COHR", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-25", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "ORCL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-07", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ADC", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-07", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "BABA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-07", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 29973.75 puts PDH 29993.25 in question above.", "Rejection at 29973.75 leaves it as resistance, with 29396 and PDL 29396 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 29396 puts PDL 29396 in question below.", "Between 29396 and 29973.75, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7592 puts PDH 7595 in question above.", "Rejection at 7592 leaves it as resistance, with 7524.75 and PDL 7524.75 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7524.75 puts PDL 7524.75 in question below.", "Between 7524.75 and 7592, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4135.2 puts PDH 4148.8 in question above.", "Rejection at 4135.2 leaves it as resistance, with 4063.3 and PDL 4063.3 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4063.3 puts PDL 4063.3 in question below.", "Between 4063.3 and 4135.2, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "09:30 BST \u2014 Continuing Jobless Claims (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Initial Jobless Claims (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "10:00 BST \u2014 FOMC Member Williams Speaks (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Existing Home Sales (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Existing Home Sales (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Natural Gas Storage (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 4-Week Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 8-Week Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "14:01 BST \u2014 30-Year Bond Auction (blackout 13:56\u201314:06)", "14:30 BST \u2014 Fed Logan Speaks (blackout 14:25\u201314:35)", "17:30 BST \u2014 Fed's Balance Sheet (blackout 17:25\u201317:35)", "17:30 BST \u2014 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (blackout 17:25\u201317:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "AMZN 8-K (items 8.01, 9.01) \u2014 filed Jul 09", "GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "META: 2 Form-4 insider filing(s)", "NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Refinery Stocks Lead S&P 500 After Trump Ceasefire Comment [Yahoo]", "Is Insulet Corporation (PODD) Stock Still a Diabetes Device Growth Opportunity After Analyst Target Cut? [Yahoo]", "Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock a Buy After Tryngolza\u2019s FDA Approval? [Yahoo]", "Is Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Stock Still a Healthcare Growth Opportunity After Analyst Target Cut? [Yahoo]", "Is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) Stock Still a Biotech Leader After Analyst Price Target Cut? [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }