{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-14", "generated_at": "2026-07-13T21:46:08+00:00", "sentiment_read": "Mood into the open is subdued and range-defined. NQ, ES, and GC all carry a CHOP regime tag, and each settled with its prior-day close in the lower third of its prior-day range \u2014 NQ at 29430.75, ES at 7553.75, GC at 4008.7 \u2014 so the session opens inside familiar territory rather than at fresh extremes. The macro flags read as a positive curve with loose financial conditions, a backdrop of easy liquidity rather than stress. Headlines are single-stock AI-adjacent chatter (Micron, IBM, Credo) with nothing index-moving attached, and material filings are empty. The calendar is speech-and-auction fare: Bowman remarks in the early London morning, an OPEC meeting shortly after, midday bill auctions, a Waller speech in the early afternoon, and the federal budget balance later in the afternoon \u2014 headline risk arrives in bursts around those windows, with quiet tape in between.", "the_setup": "NQ: acceptance above 30042.5 puts 30042.5 in question above as the shared overnight and prior-day high; rejection at 30042.5 leaves it as resistance, with the 29500 magnet and 29386.5 below as support. Acceptance below 29386.5 puts 29386.5 in question below, with 29250 the magnet beneath. Between 29386.5 and 30042.5, rangebound \u2014 price is working around the EMA cluster at 29543.62, 29635.88, and 29706.45, with ATR 119.88 as the day's measuring stick. ES: acceptance above 7615.5 puts 7615.5 in question above; rejection at 7615.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7547 below as support. Acceptance below 7547 puts 7547 in question below, with the 7500 magnet beneath. Between 7547 and 7615.5, rangebound \u2014 a compressed band against ATR 16.59, with the EMAs bunched at 7572.64, 7581.65, and 7581.11. GC: acceptance above 4099.7 puts 4099.7 in question above; rejection at 4099.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4002.5 as support and 3992.9 below it. Acceptance below 4002.5 puts 3992.9 in question below, with the 4000 magnet in between. Between 4002.5 and 4099.7, rangebound with ATR 18.94 \u2014 those extremes are the edges to watch, and the EMAs at 4021.55, 4044.37, and 4074.76 sit inside the band.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 30042.5 / PDL 29386.5 / PDC 29430.75; ON range 29386.5\u201330042.5; ATR 119.88, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:29543.62 / 20:29635.88 / 50:29706.45; magnets 29500, 29250, 29750; PDC 29430.75 in lower third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7615.5 / PDL 7547 / PDC 7553.75; ON range 7547\u20137615.5; ATR 16.59, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7572.64 / 20:7581.65 / 50:7581.11; magnets 7500, 7750, 7250; PDC 7553.75 in lower third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4099.7 / PDL 3992.9 / PDC 4008.7; ON range 4002.5\u20134099.7; ATR 18.94, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4021.55 / 20:4044.37 / 50:4074.76; magnets 4000, 4250, 3750; PDC 4008.7 in lower third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 30042.5, "pdl": 29386.5, "pdc": 29430.75, "on_high": 30042.5, "on_low": 29386.5, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 29543.62, "20": 29635.88, "50": 29706.45 }, "atr": 119.88, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 28750.0, 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0, 30500.0, 30750.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7615.5, "pdl": 7547.0, "pdc": 7553.75, "on_high": 7615.5, "on_low": 7547.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7572.64, "20": 7581.65, "50": 7581.11 }, "atr": 16.59, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4099.7, "pdl": 3992.9, "pdc": 4008.7, "on_high": 4099.7, "on_low": 4002.5, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4021.55, "20": 4044.37, "50": 4074.76 }, "atr": 18.94, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 711.74, "expiry": "2026-07-14", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 8.18, "expected_move_pct": 0.011493, "expected_move_1w": 19.72, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.027707, "atm_strike": 712.0, "max_pain": 720.0, "gamma_flip": 500.1738, "call_wall": 715.0, "put_wall": 716.0, "net_gex": 709633274.61, "pcr_oi": 3.0429, "pcr_volume": 1.2757, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 732.0, 2393.0 ], [ 730.0, 2003.0 ], [ 755.0, 1990.0 ], [ 735.0, 1989.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 540.0, 25000.0 ], [ 716.0, 13626.0 ], [ 530.0, 7500.0 ], [ 535.0, 7500.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 749.17, "expiry": "2026-07-14", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 5.2, "expected_move_pct": 0.006941, "expected_move_1w": 11.09, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.014803, "atm_strike": 749.0, "max_pain": 751.0, "gamma_flip": 620.1966, "call_wall": 747.0, "put_wall": 750.0, "net_gex": 434817844.24, "pcr_oi": 0.7886, "pcr_volume": 1.2109, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 940.0, 11053.0 ], [ 945.0, 11000.0 ], [ 760.0, 5195.0 ], [ 805.0, 4858.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 740.0, 8755.0 ], [ 750.0, 8476.0 ], [ 729.0, 4880.0 ], [ 745.0, 4505.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 524.47, "expiry": "2026-07-17", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 6.305, "expected_move_pct": 0.012022, "expected_move_1w": 9.35, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.017828, "atm_strike": 524.0, "max_pain": 520.0, "gamma_flip": 514.825, "call_wall": 530.0, "put_wall": 520.0, "net_gex": -148338873.55, "pcr_oi": 0.719, "pcr_volume": 1.3209, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 535.0, 5890.0 ], [ 530.0, 4697.0 ], [ 537.0, 3801.0 ], [ 550.0, 2724.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 475.0, 3311.0 ], [ 480.0, 3262.0 ], [ 490.0, 3210.0 ], [ 520.0, 2841.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 293.48, "expiry": "2026-07-14", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 3.385, "expected_move_pct": 0.011534, "expected_move_1w": 6.705, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.022847, "atm_strike": 293.0, "max_pain": 297.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 296.0, "put_wall": 292.0, "net_gex": 55496529.03, "pcr_oi": 1.4932, "pcr_volume": 2.8694, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 300.0, 3648.0 ], [ 302.0, 2154.0 ], [ 298.0, 1340.0 ], [ 296.0, 1077.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 288.0, 3292.0 ], [ 297.0, 3030.0 ], [ 292.0, 2720.0 ], [ 279.0, 1617.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 367.13, "expiry": "2026-07-15", "dte": 1, "expected_move": 7.85, "expected_move_pct": 0.021382, "expected_move_1w": 10.45, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.028464, "atm_strike": 367.0, "max_pain": 376.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 367.0, "put_wall": 373.0, "net_gex": 11670611.26, "pcr_oi": 0.5219, "pcr_volume": 1.1507, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 390.0, 1969.0 ], [ 380.0, 1080.0 ], [ 382.0, 437.0 ], [ 386.0, 371.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 373.0, 602.0 ], [ 360.0, 246.0 ], [ 370.0, 240.0 ], [ 365.0, 225.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-14", "trade_count": 443, "purchase_count": 254, "sale_count": 188, "exchange_count": 1, "purchase_notional_est": 9015631.0, "sale_notional_est": 10522096.0, "net_notional_est": -1506465.0, "index_purchase_count": 9, "index_sale_count": 15, "index_net_notional_est": -364003.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "HUBB", 10, 87005.5, 10, 0 ], [ "AAPL", 7, -32500.5, 3, 4 ], [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "BEP", 5, 64502.5, 5, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 5, 59001.5, 4, 1 ], [ "ENTG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "BSX", 5, 24001.5, 4, 1 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-30", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "COHR", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-25", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "ORCL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-07", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "DASH", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-09", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "ADC", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-07", "notable": true }, { "name": "Josh Gottheimer", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "BABA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$1,001 - $15,000", "amount_mid": 8000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-01", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-07", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 30042.5 puts PDH 30042.5 in question above.", "Rejection at 30042.5 leaves it as resistance, with 29386.5 and PDL 29386.5 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 29386.5 puts PDL 29386.5 in question below.", "Between 29386.5 and 30042.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7615.5 puts PDH 7615.5 in question above.", "Rejection at 7615.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7547 and PDL 7547 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7547 puts PDL 7547 in question below.", "Between 7547 and 7615.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4099.7 puts PDH 4099.7 in question above.", "Rejection at 4099.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4002.5 and PDL 3992.9 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4002.5 puts PDL 3992.9 in question below.", "Between 4002.5 and 4099.7, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "06:25 BST \u2014 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (blackout 06:20\u201306:30)", "07:00 BST \u2014 OPEC Meeting (blackout 06:55\u201307:05)", "12:30 BST \u2014 3-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 6-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "13:30 BST \u2014 Fed Waller Speaks (blackout 13:25\u201313:35)", "15:00 BST \u2014 Federal Budget Balance (blackout 14:55\u201315:05)" ], "material_filings": [], "overnight_digest": [ "Why Analysts Still See Big Upside for Micron Stock After Its Massive Rally [Yahoo]", "IBM Just Unveiled Major Updates to Its Bob AI Platform. How to Play IBM Stock Here. [Yahoo]", "Coursera Stock Can Rally from Oversold Levels on Merger Synergies [Yahoo]", "US boomers should probably stop paying cash for their cars. Why a big \u2018financial flex\u2019 costs you thousands of dollars [Yahoo]", "Why Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) Is Emerging as a Leading AI Connectivity Play Across Copper and Optical Networking [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }