{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-21", "generated_at": "2026-07-20T21:45:53+00:00", "sentiment_read": "Mood reads mixed and headline-heavy against a CHOP regime across all three instruments. The single-name tape is doing the talking: Microsoft's 4,800 job cuts and 2,879 H-1B filings sit alongside a 1.2 trillion market-value story, while a 1.7 billion catalyst circulates around Bloom Energy and the chip complex stays in focus into earnings season. Rates backdrop is constructive-to-neutral with 2s10s positive and NFCI loose, and a GOOGL Form-4 insider filing rounds out the flow. The calendar is light but punctuated: US Leading Index at 11:00 BST inside a 10:55-11:05 blackout, then 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 12:30 BST inside a 12:25-12:35 blackout. Narrow overnight ranges and compressed EMAs \u2014 NQ 9:28888.06 / 20:28903.74 / 50:28993.67, ES 9:7501.1 / 20:7507.77 / 50:7524.19, GC 9:4013.2 / 20:4014.03 / 50:4014.96 \u2014 describe a market coiled and news-sensitive rather than trending, with ATRs of 132.89 on NQ, 21.07 on ES and 14.25 on GC framing the day's expected travel.", "the_setup": "NQ: acceptance above ON high 29110.5 puts PDH 29192.5 in question above; rejection at 29110.5 leaves it as resistance, with 28750 and PDL 28750 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 28750 puts PDL 28750 in question below. Between 28750 and 29110.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch, and with PDC 28777.75 in the lower third of the prior-day range the magnets at 28750, 29000 and 28500 mark the reference points. ES: acceptance above ON high 7545.5 puts PDH 7552.25 in question above; rejection at 7545.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7476.75 and PDL 7476.75 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 7476.75 puts PDL 7476.75 in question below. Between 7476.75 and 7545.5, rangebound, with PDC 7483.5 sitting near the lower edge and magnets at 7500, 7250 and 7750 as reference. GC: acceptance above ON high 4046.1 puts PDH 4046.1 in question above; rejection at 4046.1 leaves it as resistance, with 3986.6 and PDL 3986.6 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 3986.6 puts PDL 3986.6 in question below. Between 3986.6 and 4046.1, rangebound \u2014 PDC 4011.7 holds the middle third with magnets at 4000, 4250 and 3750. Across all three, the 11:00 and 12:30 BST blackouts are the windows where those conditional levels are most in question.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 29192.5 / PDL 28750 / PDC 28777.75; ON range 28750\u201329110.5; ATR 132.89, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:28888.06 / 20:28903.74 / 50:28993.67; magnets 28750, 29000, 28500; PDC 28777.75 in lower third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7552.25 / PDL 7476.75 / PDC 7483.5; ON range 7476.75\u20137545.5; ATR 21.07, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7501.1 / 20:7507.77 / 50:7524.19; magnets 7500, 7250, 7750; PDC 7483.5 in lower third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4046.1 / PDL 3986.6 / PDC 4011.7; ON range 3986.6\u20134046.1; ATR 14.25, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4013.2 / 20:4014.03 / 50:4014.96; magnets 4000, 4250, 3750; PDC 4011.7 in middle third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 29192.5, "pdl": 28750.0, "pdc": 28777.75, "on_high": 29110.5, "on_low": 28750.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 28888.06, "20": 28903.74, "50": 28993.67 }, "atr": 132.89, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 28250.0, 28500.0, 28750.0, 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7552.25, "pdl": 7476.75, "pdc": 7483.5, "on_high": 7545.5, "on_low": 7476.75, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7501.1, "20": 7507.77, "50": 7524.19 }, "atr": 21.07, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4046.1, "pdl": 3986.6, "pdc": 4011.7, "on_high": 4046.1, "on_low": 3986.6, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4013.2, "20": 4014.03, "50": 4014.96 }, "atr": 14.25, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 696.06, "expiry": "2026-07-21", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 7.98, "expected_move_pct": 0.011465, "expected_move_1w": 21.02, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.030199, "atm_strike": 696.0, "max_pain": 706.0, "gamma_flip": 500.6706, "call_wall": 700.0, "put_wall": 695.0, "net_gex": 307640879.94, "pcr_oi": 1.4288, "pcr_volume": 1.3885, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 720.0, 7309.0 ], [ 735.0, 3027.0 ], [ 725.0, 2316.0 ], [ 738.0, 2170.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 675.0, 7342.0 ], [ 680.0, 6072.0 ], [ 605.0, 4592.0 ], [ 682.0, 4005.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 742.09, "expiry": "2026-07-21", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 4.84, "expected_move_pct": 0.006522, "expected_move_1w": 12.325, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.016608, "atm_strike": 742.0, "max_pain": 749.0, "gamma_flip": 620.1381, "call_wall": 745.0, "put_wall": 745.0, "net_gex": 1190744249.98, "pcr_oi": 0.9722, "pcr_volume": 1.1561, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 770.0, 11138.0 ], [ 757.0, 10294.0 ], [ 794.0, 7945.0 ], [ 755.0, 5806.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 730.0, 11157.0 ], [ 729.0, 8152.0 ], [ 726.0, 6234.0 ], [ 745.0, 5381.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 517.94, "expiry": "2026-07-24", "dte": 3, "expected_move": 6.5, "expected_move_pct": 0.01255, "expected_move_1w": 10.475, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.020224, "atm_strike": 518.0, "max_pain": 522.5, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 526.0, "put_wall": 520.0, "net_gex": 59562322.48, "pcr_oi": 1.0217, "pcr_volume": 1.4411, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 540.0, 5193.0 ], [ 538.0, 3582.0 ], [ 550.0, 3150.0 ], [ 545.0, 3045.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 490.0, 5315.0 ], [ 485.0, 3039.0 ], [ 460.0, 3017.0 ], [ 520.0, 1765.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 292.31, "expiry": "2026-07-21", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 2.585, "expected_move_pct": 0.008843, "expected_move_1w": 6.345, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.021706, "atm_strike": 292.0, "max_pain": 296.0, "gamma_flip": 230.0, "call_wall": 294.0, "put_wall": 290.0, "net_gex": 123585914.56, "pcr_oi": 5.723, "pcr_volume": 1.3468, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 302.0, 1802.0 ], [ 299.0, 1204.0 ], [ 298.0, 1062.0 ], [ 300.0, 984.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 285.0, 6929.0 ], [ 286.0, 5823.0 ], [ 290.0, 5188.0 ], [ 283.0, 3671.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 367.6, "expiry": "2026-07-22", "dte": 1, "expected_move": 4.57, "expected_move_pct": 0.012432, "expected_move_1w": 7.675, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.020879, "atm_strike": 368.0, "max_pain": 369.0, "gamma_flip": 295.1295, "call_wall": 370.0, "put_wall": 365.0, "net_gex": -1405968.24, "pcr_oi": 0.5245, "pcr_volume": 0.9877, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 395.0, 1079.0 ], [ 394.0, 774.0 ], [ 385.0, 683.0 ], [ 383.0, 626.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 345.0, 1053.0 ], [ 363.0, 222.0 ], [ 360.0, 189.0 ], [ 359.0, 170.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-21", "trade_count": 416, "purchase_count": 225, "sale_count": 186, "exchange_count": 5, "purchase_notional_est": 3841115.5, "sale_notional_est": 7491481.0, "net_notional_est": -3650365.5, "index_purchase_count": 7, "index_sale_count": 16, "index_net_notional_est": -412504.5, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "HUBB", 10, 87005.5, 10, 0 ], [ "LPLA", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "NVDA", 5, -382501.5, 1, 4 ], [ "AAPL", 5, -73001.5, 1, 4 ], [ "BEP", 5, 64502.5, 5, 0 ], [ "BIIB", 5, 59001.5, 4, 1 ], [ "ENTG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ], [ "TDG", 5, 40002.5, 5, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$100,001 - $250,000", "amount_mid": 175000.5, "txn_date": "2026-05-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-02", "notable": true }, { "name": "Tim Moore", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "T", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$50,001 - $100,000", "amount_mid": 75000.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-04", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-04", "notable": true }, { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AWK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "CSX", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "DUK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "LMT", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "MA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NEE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PFE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PG", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 29110.5 puts PDH 29192.5 in question above.", "Rejection at 29110.5 leaves it as resistance, with 28750 and PDL 28750 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 28750 puts PDL 28750 in question below.", "Between 28750 and 29110.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7545.5 puts PDH 7552.25 in question above.", "Rejection at 7545.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7476.75 and PDL 7476.75 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7476.75 puts PDL 7476.75 in question below.", "Between 7476.75 and 7545.5, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4046.1 puts PDH 4046.1 in question above.", "Rejection at 4046.1 leaves it as resistance, with 3986.6 and PDL 3986.6 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 3986.6 puts PDL 3986.6 in question below.", "Between 3986.6 and 4046.1, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "11:00 BST \u2014 US Leading Index (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "12:30 BST \u2014 3-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)", "12:30 BST \u2014 6-Month Bill Auction (blackout 12:25\u201312:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "GOOGL: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Microsoft cut 4,800 jobs, filed 2,879 H-1B visas \u2014 but the real reason behind its $1.2T market value drop is far bigger [Yahoo]", "A $1.7 Billion Reason to Buy Bloom Energy Stock Now [Yahoo]", "Weekly Stock List [Yahoo]", "Why IBM Stock Crashed 25% Even as AI Spending Exploded [Yahoo]", "Why Analysts Still See Nvidia as the Top Chip Stock to Buy for Q2 Earnings Season [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }