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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-22 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · no scheduled index catalyst
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ the overnight range 28706.5 to 29317 sits inside the prior-day envelope, with its low printing exactly at PDL 28706.5 — the two edges are stacked. Acceptance above ON high 29317 puts PDH 29363.5 in question above; rejection at 29317 leaves it as resistance, with 28706.5 as support below. Acceptance below 28706.5 puts PDL 28706.5 in question below. Between 28706.5 and 29317, rangebound. The EMA stack — 9 at 29267.7, 20 at 29180.14, 50 at 29093.88 — is compressed inside that band, and magnets sit at 29250, 29500 and 29000. ES: overnight 7473.75 to 7547, low again coincident with PDL 7473.75. Acceptance above ON high 7547 puts PDH 7554.25 in question above; rejection at 7547 leaves it as resistance, with 7473.75 as support below. Acceptance below 7473.75 puts PDL 7473.75 in question below. Between 7473.75 and 7547, rangebound — a band narrower than the 13.38 ATR would fill in a single traverse. EMAs at 7538.59, 7528.51 and 7524.45 are clustered near the upper edge; magnets at 7500, 7750, 7250. GC: overnight 4008.1 to 4090.7, with the high stopping just under PDH 4092.2. Acceptance above 4090.7 puts PDH 4092.2 in question above; rejection at 4090.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4008.1 as support below. Acceptance below 4008.1 puts PDL 4008.1 in question below. Between 4008.1 and 4090.7, rangebound. EMAs 4076.84, 4064.89 and 4045.02; magnets 4000, 4250, 3750. Practical shape of the session: the GOOGL reaction is the first repricing input for the equity indices, and the ADP blackout 09:10 to 09:20 and Redbook blackout 09:50 to 10:00 punctuate the London morning, with the API crude blackout 17:25 to 17:35 late. In every case the map to read is acceptance or rejection at the stated overnight extreme, with the prior-day extreme immediately behind it.
NQ
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
28706.5 — 29317
PDH29363.5
PDL28706.5
Prior close29290
ATR83.57
EMA929267.7EMA2029180.1EMA5029093.9
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 7.07 · 1.00%
Exp. move 1w± 19.83 · 2.80%
Gamma flip520.003
Net GEX (est.)$-137m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall705
Put gamma wall716
Max pain705
P/C (OI)1.9417
P/C (vol)1.6694
Heaviest call OI700 · 720 · 705 · 715
Heaviest put OI665 · 670 · 690 · 700
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29317 puts PDH 29363.5 in question above.
- Rejection at 29317 leaves it as resistance, with 28706.5 and PDL 28706.5 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 28706.5 puts PDL 28706.5 in question below.
- Between 28706.5 and 29317, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
7473.75 — 7547
PDH7554.25
PDL7473.75
Prior close7542.75
ATR13.38
EMA97538.59EMA207528.51EMA507524.45
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 4.07 · 0.54%
Exp. move 1w± 11.12 · 1.49%
Gamma flip561.531
Net GEX (est.)$-504m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall748
Put gamma wall745
Max pain747
P/C (OI)0.9808
P/C (vol)1.2091
Heaviest call OI786 · 790 · 791 · 753
Heaviest put OI720 · 740 · 734 · 727
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7547 puts PDH 7554.25 in question above.
- Rejection at 7547 leaves it as resistance, with 7473.75 and PDL 7473.75 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7473.75 puts PDL 7473.75 in question below.
- Between 7473.75 and 7547, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
4008.1 — 4090.7
PDH4092.2
PDL4008.1
Prior close4081.6
ATR12.98
EMA94076.84EMA204064.89EMA504045.02
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 3.075 · 0.82%
Exp. move 1w± 8.875 · 2.37%
Gamma flip295.016
Net GEX (est.)$-71m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall378
Put gamma wall374
Max pain367
P/C (OI)0.7044
P/C (vol)0.7163
Heaviest call OI378 · 395 · 375 · 394
Heaviest put OI345 · 365 · 367 · 350
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4090.7 puts PDH 4092.2 in question above.
- Rejection at 4090.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4008.1 and PDL 4008.1 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 4008.1 puts PDL 4008.1 in question below.
- Between 4008.1 and 4090.7, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
396 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$3.91M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
206
$3.54M est.
Sales
185
$7.45M est.
Index-relevant net
-$381K
8 buys · 13 sells
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Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
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Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE AWK
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· SALE MA
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· SALE NEE
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
4 windows01:00 BST
GOOGL earnings (AMC)
09:15 BST
ADP Employment Change Weekly
BLACKOUT 09:10–09:20
09:55 BST
Redbook
BLACKOUT 09:50–10:00
17:30 BST
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
BLACKOUT 17:25–17:35
Material Filings
- GOOGL: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
Overnight Digest
- What You Need to Know Ahead of Atmos Energy's Earnings Release [Yahoo]
- Intel Stock Is Down, But Put Premiums are High - Put Short Sellers Love the High Yields [Yahoo]
- What to Expect From NiSource's Next Quarterly Earnings Report [Yahoo]
- Jim Cramer says it may be time to trim comeback stock after 441% surge [Yahoo]
- What to Expect From MetLife's Next Quarterly Earnings Report [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
A wait-and-see tape with the calendar doing most of the talking. All three instruments sit in CHOP regime with prior-day closes in the upper third of their prior-day ranges — NQ at 29290, ES at 7542.75, GC at 4081.6 — and overnight ranges that hugged rather than extended those prior-day boundaries. Macro backdrop is accommodative on the plumbing side: the 2s10s spread is positive and NFCI reads loose, so the constraint is not funding stress. The news flow is thin and idiosyncratic — single-name earnings previews (Atmos Energy, NiSource, MetLife), an Intel put-premium story, and a Cramer note about trimming a name after a 441 percent run. Nothing there is index-level information. The one item with genuine cross-asset reach is GOOGL, which reported after the close at 01:00 BST and carries an 8-K plus earnings on the same name into the open, alongside 1 Form-4 insider filing. Index-weight concentration means that single print is the dominant idiosyncratic input to NQ and ES this session. Data is light and second-tier: ADP Employment Change Weekly at 09:15 BST, Redbook at 09:55 BST, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock at 17:30 BST — each with its own blackout window. Compressed ATRs (NQ 83.57, ES 13.38, GC 12.98) against CHOP mean the map is about levels, not travel.