{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-29", "generated_at": "2026-07-28T21:51:24+00:00", "sentiment_read": "A crowded macro tape with a light directional signature. The overnight session in all three instruments sat inside the prior day's shell \u2014 NQ between 27839.25 and 28195, ES between 7419 and 7474, GC between 4016.5 and 4075.6 \u2014 and each ATR read (154.95 on NQ, 21.3 on ES, 14.49 on GC) comes with a CHOP regime tag, so the overnight tape carried no expansion. Structurally, NQ's EMAs are compressed and stacked tightly (9 at 27953.33, 20 at 27997.35, 50 at 28195.58) and ES's are effectively knotted (9 at 7463.16, 20 at 7457.02, 50 at 7461.41) \u2014 the moving-average picture is uninformative, which is itself the read. GC's 9 at 4030.18 sits under the 20 at 4038.49 and the 50 at 4054.44, a separation the others lack. PDC placement differs by instrument: NQ's 27959.75 in the middle third of the prior day's range, ES's 7467.75 in the upper third, GC's 4028.6 in the lower third. Backdrop flags read 2s10s_positive and NFCI_loose \u2014 a non-stressed credit and curve setting. Headlines are idiosyncratic rather than macro: a D-Wave/AT&T quantum agreement, Strategy adding cash while leaving bitcoin unchanged, Bank of Hawaii's second-quarter beat, an AutoZone earnings preview, ConocoPhillips put yields on firmer oil. Material filings show one GOOGL Form-4 insider filing. The mood is compressed and event-dependent, not conviction-driven.", "the_setup": "The calendar front-loads the risk. MSFT and META both reported after the close at 01:00 BST, so the index tape opens carrying an overnight repricing that the overnight ranges may not yet reflect \u2014 NQ especially, given the constituent weight. OPEC meets at 07:00 BST (blackout 06:55\u201307:05). The morning then stacks: ADP Employment Change Weekly at 09:15 BST, Goods Trade Balance plus Retail Inventories Ex Auto and Wholesale Inventories at 09:30 BST, Redbook at 09:55 BST, a cluster of House Price Index and S&P/CS HPI Composite prints at 10:00 BST, then CB Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Manufacturing, Shipments and Services readings at 11:00 BST \u2014 the densest window of the session. Dallas Fed Services Revenues and the Texas Services Sector Outlook follow at 11:30 BST, Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 13:00 BST, and the 7-Year Note Auction alongside M2 Money Supply at 14:00 BST. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock closes the day at 17:50 BST. Map-reading, instrument by instrument. NQ: acceptance above the ON high 28195 puts PDH 28195 in question above; rejection at 28195 leaves it as resistance, with 27839.25 and PDL 27603.25 below as support; acceptance below the ON low 27839.25 puts PDL 27603.25 in question below; between 27839.25 and 28195, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch, with the magnets at 28000, 27750 and 28250 as reference. ES: acceptance above the ON high 7474 puts PDH 7485.75 in question above; rejection at 7474 leaves it as resistance, with 7419 and PDL 7417 below as support; acceptance below the ON low 7419 puts PDL 7417 in question below; between 7419 and 7474, rangebound, with 7500 and 7250 as the outer magnets. GC: acceptance above the ON high 4075.6 puts PDH 4075.6 in question above \u2014 the two are the same level, so that edge is a single line; rejection at 4075.6 leaves it as resistance, with 4016.5 and PDL 4011.1 below as support; acceptance below the ON low 4016.5 puts PDL 4011.1 in question below; between 4016.5 and 4075.6, rangebound, with 4000, 4250 and 3750 as magnets. Two things to keep in view: the earnings reaction is already in the tape before the first data blackout, and the 11:00 BST cluster is where four releases land at once \u2014 the ON extremes above are the levels that either hold or come into question through both.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 28195 / PDL 27603.25 / PDC 27959.75; ON range 27839.25\u201328195; ATR 154.95, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:27953.33 / 20:27997.35 / 50:28195.58; magnets 28000, 27750, 28250; PDC 27959.75 in middle third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7485.75 / PDL 7417 / PDC 7467.75; ON range 7419\u20137474; ATR 21.3, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7463.16 / 20:7457.02 / 50:7461.41; magnets 7500, 7250, 7750; PDC 7467.75 in upper third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4075.6 / PDL 4011.1 / PDC 4028.6; ON range 4016.5\u20134075.6; ATR 14.49, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4030.18 / 20:4038.49 / 50:4054.44; magnets 4000, 4250, 3750; PDC 4028.6 in lower third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 28195.0, "pdl": 27603.25, "pdc": 27959.75, "on_high": 28195.0, "on_low": 27839.25, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 27953.33, "20": 27997.35, "50": 28195.58 }, "atr": 154.95, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 27500.0, 27750.0, 28000.0, 28250.0, 28500.0, 28750.0, 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0, 30250.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7485.75, "pdl": 7417.0, "pdc": 7467.75, "on_high": 7474.0, "on_low": 7419.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7463.16, "20": 7457.02, "50": 7461.41 }, "atr": 21.3, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4075.6, "pdl": 4011.1, "pdc": 4028.6, "on_high": 4075.6, "on_low": 4016.5, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4030.18, "20": 4038.49, "50": 4054.44 }, "atr": 14.49, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 3750.0, 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 675.49, "expiry": "2026-07-29", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 9.57, "expected_move_pct": 0.014167, "expected_move_1w": 22.575, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.03342, "atm_strike": 675.0, "max_pain": 689.0, "gamma_flip": 538.5105, "call_wall": 680.0, "put_wall": 677.0, "net_gex": 380310612.66, "pcr_oi": 1.0456, "pcr_volume": 0.9538, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 720.0, 10040.0 ], [ 696.0, 5796.0 ], [ 700.0, 5710.0 ], [ 695.0, 4126.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 495.0, 7542.0 ], [ 610.0, 4937.0 ], [ 677.0, 3880.0 ], [ 670.0, 3525.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 740.86, "expiry": "2026-07-29", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 6.055, "expected_move_pct": 0.008173, "expected_move_1w": 13.51, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.018236, "atm_strike": 741.0, "max_pain": 740.0, "gamma_flip": 696.748, "call_wall": 748.0, "put_wall": 735.0, "net_gex": -195326847.41, "pcr_oi": 0.9861, "pcr_volume": 1.0655, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 748.0, 15094.0 ], [ 753.0, 11615.0 ], [ 750.0, 6977.0 ], [ 740.0, 5784.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 735.0, 10910.0 ], [ 719.0, 8745.0 ], [ 718.0, 6809.0 ], [ 725.0, 6152.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 526.89, "expiry": "2026-07-31", "dte": 2, "expected_move": 7.05, "expected_move_pct": 0.01338, "expected_move_1w": 10.825, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.020545, "atm_strike": 527.0, "max_pain": 521.0, "gamma_flip": 441.1701, "call_wall": 525.0, "put_wall": 530.0, "net_gex": -111021312.23, "pcr_oi": 0.9069, "pcr_volume": 2.2735, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 537.0, 3735.0 ], [ 555.0, 3720.0 ], [ 535.0, 3666.0 ], [ 550.0, 3564.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 480.0, 3787.0 ], [ 485.0, 3606.0 ], [ 518.0, 1715.0 ], [ 505.0, 1072.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 293.37, "expiry": "2026-07-29", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 3.805, "expected_move_pct": 0.01297, "expected_move_1w": 7.305, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.0249, "atm_strike": 293.0, "max_pain": 293.0, "gamma_flip": 294.4553, "call_wall": 295.0, "put_wall": 289.0, "net_gex": -76130272.83, "pcr_oi": 1.2323, "pcr_volume": 1.5872, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 295.0, 9887.0 ], [ 301.0, 3951.0 ], [ 300.0, 3948.0 ], [ 297.0, 3594.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 286.0, 7578.0 ], [ 289.0, 4302.0 ], [ 287.0, 3866.0 ], [ 283.0, 3832.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 369.37, "expiry": "2026-07-29", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 4.97, "expected_move_pct": 0.013455, "expected_move_1w": 10.0, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.027073, "atm_strike": 369.0, "max_pain": 373.0, "gamma_flip": 335.7072, "call_wall": 374.0, "put_wall": 370.0, "net_gex": 45283467.81, "pcr_oi": 1.0263, "pcr_volume": 1.9177, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 385.0, 2091.0 ], [ 395.0, 1663.0 ], [ 380.0, 1556.0 ], [ 375.0, 915.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 370.0, 2010.0 ], [ 353.0, 1728.0 ], [ 361.0, 1421.0 ], [ 364.0, 1343.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-29", "trade_count": 1021, "purchase_count": 800, "sale_count": 217, "exchange_count": 4, "purchase_notional_est": 10569901.0, "sale_notional_est": 24345495.5, "net_notional_est": -13775594.5, "index_purchase_count": 21, "index_sale_count": 11, "index_net_notional_est": 605505.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "AAPL", 6, 318000.0, 3, 3 ], [ "BRK.B", 6, 139503.0, 6, 0 ], [ "MSFT", 6, 56502.0, 5, 1 ], [ "HUBB", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "HD", 5, -124000.5, 2, 3 ], [ "GOOG", 5, 91001.5, 4, 1 ], [ "NVDA", 5, 50500.5, 3, 2 ], [ "SPCX", 4, 56502.0, 4, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AWK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "CSX", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "DUK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "LMT", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "MA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NEE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PFE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PG", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-30", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 28195 puts PDH 28195 in question above.", "Rejection at 28195 leaves it as resistance, with 27839.25 and PDL 27603.25 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 27839.25 puts PDL 27603.25 in question below.", "Between 27839.25 and 28195, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7474 puts PDH 7485.75 in question above.", "Rejection at 7474 leaves it as resistance, with 7419 and PDL 7417 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7419 puts PDL 7417 in question below.", "Between 7419 and 7474, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4075.6 puts PDH 4075.6 in question above.", "Rejection at 4075.6 leaves it as resistance, with 4016.5 and PDL 4011.1 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4016.5 puts PDL 4011.1 in question below.", "Between 4016.5 and 4075.6, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "01:00 BST \u2014 MSFT earnings (AMC)", "01:00 BST \u2014 META earnings (AMC)", "07:00 BST \u2014 OPEC Meeting (blackout 06:55\u201307:05)", "09:15 BST \u2014 ADP Employment Change Weekly (blackout 09:10\u201309:20)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Goods Trade Balance (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:30 BST \u2014 Wholesale Inventories (blackout 09:25\u201309:35)", "09:55 BST \u2014 Redbook (blackout 09:50\u201310:00)", "10:00 BST \u2014 House Price Index (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "10:00 BST \u2014 House Price Index (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "10:00 BST \u2014 House Price Index (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "10:00 BST \u2014 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "10:00 BST \u2014 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "10:00 BST \u2014 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (blackout 09:55\u201310:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 CB Consumer Confidence (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Richmond Manufacturing Index (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:00 BST \u2014 Richmond Services Index (blackout 10:55\u201311:05)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Dallas Fed Services Revenues (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Texas Services Sector Outlook (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "13:00 BST \u2014 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (blackout 12:55\u201313:05)", "14:00 BST \u2014 7-Year Note Auction (blackout 13:55\u201314:05)", "14:00 BST \u2014 M2 Money Supply (blackout 13:55\u201314:05)", "17:50 BST \u2014 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (blackout 17:45\u201317:55)" ], "material_filings": [ "GOOGL: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Quantum Computing Stocks: D-Wave, AT&T Expand Quantum Agreement [Yahoo]", "Strategy Again Boosts Cash Reserves And Leaves Bitcoin Unchanged [Yahoo]", "Bank of Hawaii posts stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings [Yahoo]", "AutoZone Earnings Preview: What to Expect [Yahoo]", "ConocoPhillips Stock Has Attractive Short-Put Yields for One Month As Oil Price Rise [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }