{ "schema_version": 1, "date": "2026-07-30", "generated_at": "2026-07-29T21:51:50+00:00", "sentiment_read": "The tape comes into this session with the calendar doing the talking. FOMC lands at 15:00 BST with the press conference at 15:30 BST, and both index products closed yesterday with the PDC in the lower third of the prior-day range \u2014 ES 7335.25 against a 7323.25\u20137501 band, NQ 27259.75 against 27200\u201328177.25. Both sit under all three reference EMAs (ES 7404.4 / 7429.13 / 7447.67; NQ 27616.18 / 27737.93 / 27933.92), and both are tagged CHOP regime with ATR 36.82 and 232.14 respectively \u2014 ranges wide enough to matter, structure not organised. Overnight added nothing new: the ON range in each is the prior-day range verbatim, which is the signature of a market waiting rather than positioning. The single-name headline flow is loud \u2014 Apple through the $5 trillion mark, MSFT and META both filing 8-Ks with earnings items on Jul 29, AAPL and AMZN reporting after the close at 01:00 BST \u2014 but it is loud in a way that pulls attention to individual names rather than the index. GOOGL shows 7 Form-4 insider filings. Elsewhere the tone is mixed and unresolved: dollar strength across EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF, AI-bubble scepticism in the AMD commentary, a cannabis operator closing two facilities and cutting 211 jobs, and Treasury attention on non-profit tax treatment. Macro plumbing flags read 2s10s_positive and NFCI_loose \u2014 a positively sloped curve and loose financial conditions, which is the backdrop the Fed decision is being read against, not a signal of its own. Gold is the one product not pinned to yesterday's extremes: PDC 4126.5 sits in the middle third of the prior-day range with a compressed ON band of 4067.2\u20134128.8 inside a 4053.8\u20134176.6 prior day, its three EMAs coiled tightly at 4106.49 / 4098.12 / 4103.38, ATR 24.26. That coil plus a rate decision plus a firm dollar is the whole story for metals today.", "the_setup": "Treat everything before 14:55 BST as a holding pattern and everything after 15:35 BST as a different market. Mortgage data at 08:00 BST (blackout 07:55\u201308:05) and the full EIA crude complex at 11:30 BST (blackout 11:25\u201311:35) are the only pre-Fed items with any claim on attention, and the crude prints matter more for energy than for the index. The decision itself is 15:00 BST (blackout 14:55\u201315:05) followed by the press conference at 15:30 BST (blackout 15:25\u201315:35) \u2014 two separate events, and the second has historically been where the day's character is set. Respect both blackouts.\n\nNQ: acceptance above ON high 28177.25 puts PDH 28177.25 in question above; rejection at 28177.25 leaves it as resistance, with 27200 and PDL 27200 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 27200 puts PDL 27200 in question below. Between 27200 and 28177.25, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch, and with the ON range identical to the prior day those edges are doing double duty. Magnets at 27250, 27500 and 27000 sit inside and below that band; PDC 27259.75 is close enough to 27250 that the two function as one reference. The EMA stack at 27616.18 / 27737.93 / 27933.92 is overhead as resistance while price holds below it.\n\nES: acceptance above ON high 7501 puts PDH 7501 in question above; rejection at 7501 leaves it as resistance, with 7323.25 and PDL 7323.25 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 7323.25 puts PDL 7323.25 in question below. Between 7323.25 and 7501, rangebound. Magnet 7500 is effectively coincident with 7501, which makes that a dense area of reference rather than a single line; 7250 below and 7750 above are the next magnets out. The 7404.4 / 7429.13 / 7447.67 EMA cluster sits between spot and the range high as resistance while it holds below.\n\nGC: acceptance above ON high 4128.8 puts PDH 4176.6 in question above; rejection at 4128.8 leaves it as resistance, with 4067.2 and PDL 4053.8 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 4067.2 puts PDL 4053.8 in question below. Between 4067.2 and 4128.8, rangebound \u2014 a tight band inside a wider prior day, so the space between 4128.8 and 4176.6 above and between 4067.2 and 4053.8 below is unworked. The 4106.49 / 4098.12 / 4103.38 EMAs are compressed inside the ON range, so they offer no reference until price leaves that band. Magnets 4250 above and 4000 below are far from the action.\n\nAfter the close, AAPL and AMZN at 01:00 BST are the reason not to carry assumptions from this session into the next one \u2014 that combination on the same evening as an FOMC day means the overnight map is rewritten from scratch. What matters intraday is which side of the ON extremes the post-15:30 BST tape does business on, and whether the levels that held into the decision still hold after it.", "technical_map": { "NQ": "PDH 28177.25 / PDL 27200 / PDC 27259.75; ON range 27200\u201328177.25; ATR 232.14, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:27616.18 / 20:27737.93 / 50:27933.92; magnets 27250, 27500, 27000; PDC 27259.75 in lower third of PD range", "ES": "PDH 7501 / PDL 7323.25 / PDC 7335.25; ON range 7323.25\u20137501; ATR 36.82, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:7404.4 / 20:7429.13 / 50:7447.67; magnets 7250, 7500, 7750; PDC 7335.25 in lower third of PD range", "GC": "PDH 4176.6 / PDL 4053.8 / PDC 4126.5; ON range 4067.2\u20134128.8; ATR 24.26, regime CHOP; EMAs 9:4106.49 / 20:4098.12 / 50:4103.38; magnets 4250, 4000; PDC 4126.5 in middle third of PD range" }, "levels": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "pdh": 28177.25, "pdl": 27200.0, "pdc": 27259.75, "on_high": 28177.25, "on_low": 27200.0, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 27616.18, "20": 27737.93, "50": 27933.92 }, "atr": 232.14, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 27000.0, 27250.0, 27500.0, 27750.0, 28000.0, 28250.0, 28500.0, 28750.0, 29000.0, 29250.0, 29500.0, 29750.0, 30000.0 ] }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "pdh": 7501.0, "pdl": 7323.25, "pdc": 7335.25, "on_high": 7501.0, "on_low": 7323.25, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 7404.4, "20": 7429.13, "50": 7447.67 }, "atr": 36.82, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 7250.0, 7500.0, 7750.0 ] }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "pdh": 4176.6, "pdl": 4053.8, "pdc": 4126.5, "on_high": 4128.8, "on_low": 4067.2, "orb_anchors": {}, "emas": { "9": 4106.49, "20": 4098.12, "50": 4103.38 }, "atr": 24.26, "regime": "CHOP", "magnets": [ 4000.0, 4250.0 ] } }, "options": { "NQ": { "symbol": "NQ", "proxy_etf": "QQQ", "spot": 661.73, "expiry": "2026-07-30", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 10.67, "expected_move_pct": 0.016124, "expected_move_1w": 24.055, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.036352, "atm_strike": 662.0, "max_pain": 680.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 672.0, "put_wall": 660.0, "net_gex": 493193428.52, "pcr_oi": 1.2002, "pcr_volume": 1.0766, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 700.0, 9344.0 ], [ 690.0, 5414.0 ], [ 680.0, 5263.0 ], [ 710.0, 4825.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 650.0, 8605.0 ], [ 605.0, 7768.0 ], [ 660.0, 5993.0 ], [ 640.0, 3711.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "ES": { "symbol": "ES", "proxy_etf": "SPY", "spot": 729.46, "expiry": "2026-07-30", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 7.27, "expected_move_pct": 0.009966, "expected_move_1w": 15.83, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.021701, "atm_strike": 729.0, "max_pain": 741.0, "gamma_flip": null, "call_wall": 738.0, "put_wall": 730.0, "net_gex": 1431980194.55, "pcr_oi": 1.3124, "pcr_volume": 1.1427, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 750.0, 7710.0 ], [ 745.0, 6199.0 ], [ 748.0, 4763.0 ], [ 753.0, 4022.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 720.0, 10467.0 ], [ 730.0, 6766.0 ], [ 719.0, 6700.0 ], [ 735.0, 6225.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "YM": { "symbol": "YM", "proxy_etf": "DIA", "spot": 515.41, "expiry": "2026-07-31", "dte": 1, "expected_move": 6.675, "expected_move_pct": 0.012951, "expected_move_1w": 11.675, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.022652, "atm_strike": 515.0, "max_pain": 523.0, "gamma_flip": 415.5139, "call_wall": 525.0, "put_wall": 517.5, "net_gex": 180787339.01, "pcr_oi": 1.0963, "pcr_volume": 1.0434, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 555.0, 3720.0 ], [ 535.0, 3704.0 ], [ 550.0, 3564.0 ], [ 537.0, 3433.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 480.0, 3787.0 ], [ 485.0, 3607.0 ], [ 517.5, 1841.0 ], [ 518.0, 1741.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "RTY": { "symbol": "RTY", "proxy_etf": "IWM", "spot": 288.57, "expiry": "2026-07-30", "dte": 0, "expected_move": 3.545, "expected_move_pct": 0.012285, "expected_move_1w": 7.755, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.026874, "atm_strike": 289.0, "max_pain": 292.0, "gamma_flip": 235.0, "call_wall": 292.0, "put_wall": 285.0, "net_gex": 226403296.67, "pcr_oi": 2.4405, "pcr_volume": 3.36, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 299.0, 4220.0 ], [ 296.0, 3649.0 ], [ 298.0, 3247.0 ], [ 301.0, 2577.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 283.0, 11610.0 ], [ 285.0, 9501.0 ], [ 284.0, 6433.0 ], [ 290.0, 4549.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." }, "GC": { "symbol": "GC", "proxy_etf": "GLD", "spot": 371.08, "expiry": "2026-07-31", "dte": 1, "expected_move": 6.05, "expected_move_pct": 0.016304, "expected_move_1w": 8.85, "expected_move_1w_pct": 0.023849, "atm_strike": 371.0, "max_pain": 370.0, "gamma_flip": 302.5248, "call_wall": 375.0, "put_wall": 370.0, "net_gex": -71792669.33, "pcr_oi": 0.7311, "pcr_volume": 0.5741, "heavy_call_oi": [ [ 385.0, 9908.0 ], [ 400.0, 8039.0 ], [ 381.0, 6624.0 ], [ 415.0, 5555.0 ] ], "heavy_put_oi": [ [ 330.0, 7773.0 ], [ 325.0, 7430.0 ], [ 360.0, 6005.0 ], [ 363.0, 3981.0 ] ], "note": "Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD \u2260 index \u2260 future \u2014 positioning map, not a measured dealer book." } }, "congress": { "window_days": 50, "asof": "2026-07-30", "trade_count": 1035, "purchase_count": 807, "sale_count": 224, "exchange_count": 4, "purchase_notional_est": 13344904.5, "sale_notional_est": 25142999.0, "net_notional_est": -11798094.5, "index_purchase_count": 21, "index_sale_count": 11, "index_net_notional_est": 605505.0, "index_tickers": [ "NVDA", "MSFT", "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "GOOG", "META", "TSLA" ], "top_tickers": [ [ "AAPL", 6, 318000.0, 3, 3 ], [ "BRK.B", 6, 139503.0, 6, 0 ], [ "MSFT", 6, 56502.0, 5, 1 ], [ "HUBB", 6, 48003.0, 6, 0 ], [ "HD", 5, -124000.5, 2, 3 ], [ "GOOG", 5, 91001.5, 4, 1 ], [ "NVDA", 5, 50500.5, 3, 2 ], [ "SPCX", 4, 56502.0, 4, 0 ] ], "notable": [ { "name": "Daniel Meuser", "chamber": "House", "ticker": "SPCX", "type": "purchase", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-15", "disclosure_date": "2026-06-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AWK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "CSX", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "DUK", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "LMT", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "MA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NEE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PFE", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Thomas H Tuberville", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "PG", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-08", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-16", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "AAPL", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-24", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true }, { "name": "Sheldon Whitehouse", "chamber": "Senate", "ticker": "NVDA", "type": "sale", "amount": "$15,001 - $50,000", "amount_mid": 32500.5, "txn_date": "2026-06-30", "disclosure_date": "2026-07-08", "notable": true } ], "chambers": [ "House", "Senate" ], "note": "Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) \u2014 this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only \u2014 no directional inference." }, "scenarios": { "NQ": [ "Acceptance above ON high 28177.25 puts PDH 28177.25 in question above.", "Rejection at 28177.25 leaves it as resistance, with 27200 and PDL 27200 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 27200 puts PDL 27200 in question below.", "Between 27200 and 28177.25, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "ES": [ "Acceptance above ON high 7501 puts PDH 7501 in question above.", "Rejection at 7501 leaves it as resistance, with 7323.25 and PDL 7323.25 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 7323.25 puts PDL 7323.25 in question below.", "Between 7323.25 and 7501, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ], "GC": [ "Acceptance above ON high 4128.8 puts PDH 4176.6 in question above.", "Rejection at 4128.8 leaves it as resistance, with 4067.2 and PDL 4053.8 below as support.", "Acceptance below ON low 4067.2 puts PDL 4053.8 in question below.", "Between 4067.2 and 4128.8, rangebound \u2014 the ON extremes are the edges to watch." ] }, "charts": { "NQ": "NQ.png", "ES": "ES.png", "GC": "GC.png", "NQ_gamma": "NQ_gamma.png", "ES_gamma": "ES_gamma.png", "YM_gamma": "YM_gamma.png", "RTY_gamma": "RTY_gamma.png", "GC_gamma": "GC_gamma.png" }, "catalyst_timeline": [ "01:00 BST \u2014 AAPL earnings (AMC)", "01:00 BST \u2014 AMZN earnings (AMC)", "08:00 BST \u2014 MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "08:00 BST \u2014 MBA Mortgage Applications (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "08:00 BST \u2014 MBA Purchase Index (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "08:00 BST \u2014 Mortgage Market Index (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "08:00 BST \u2014 Mortgage Refinance Index (blackout 07:55\u201308:05)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Crude Oil Inventories (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Crude Oil Imports (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Distillate Fuel Production (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Gasoline Production (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Heating Oil Stockpiles (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "11:30 BST \u2014 Gasoline Inventories (blackout 11:25\u201311:35)", "15:00 BST \u2014 FOMC Statement (blackout 14:55\u201315:05)", "15:00 BST \u2014 Fed Interest Rate Decision (blackout 14:55\u201315:05)", "15:30 BST \u2014 FOMC Press Conference (blackout 15:25\u201315:35)" ], "material_filings": [ "MSFT 8-K (items 2.02, 9.01) \u2014 filed Jul 29", "META 8-K (items 2.02, 9.01) \u2014 filed Jul 29", "GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)" ], "overnight_digest": [ "Apple tops $5 trillion market cap, only second company to hit the milestone [Yahoo]", "Secretary Bessent cracks down on non-profit tax loopholes [Yahoo]", "AMD Stock Sets Up For This Bearish Trade As AI Bubble Trouble Looms [Yahoo]", "Forex Forecasts \u2013 US Dollar Flexes Strength Across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF [Yahoo]", "Major cannabis company closes 2 facilities, cuts 211 jobs [Yahoo]" ], "data_quality_notes": [], "instruments": [ "NQ", "ES", "GC" ] }