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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-14 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, Fed Waller Speaks
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ acceptance above 30042.5 puts 30042.5 in question above as the shared overnight and prior-day high; rejection at 30042.5 leaves it as resistance, with the 29500 magnet and 29386.5 below as support. Acceptance below 29386.5 puts 29386.5 in question below, with 29250 the magnet beneath. Between 29386.5 and 30042.5, rangebound — price is working around the EMA cluster at 29543.62, 29635.88, and 29706.45, with ATR 119.88 as the day's measuring stick. ES: acceptance above 7615.5 puts 7615.5 in question above; rejection at 7615.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7547 below as support. Acceptance below 7547 puts 7547 in question below, with the 7500 magnet beneath. Between 7547 and 7615.5, rangebound — a compressed band against ATR 16.59, with the EMAs bunched at 7572.64, 7581.65, and 7581.11. GC: acceptance above 4099.7 puts 4099.7 in question above; rejection at 4099.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4002.5 as support and 3992.9 below it. Acceptance below 4002.5 puts 3992.9 in question below, with the 4000 magnet in between. Between 4002.5 and 4099.7, rangebound with ATR 18.94 — those extremes are the edges to watch, and the EMAs at 4021.55, 4044.37, and 4074.76 sit inside the band.
NQ
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
29386.5 — 30042.5
PDH30042.5
PDL29386.5
Prior close29430.8
ATR119.88
EMA929543.6EMA2029635.9EMA5029706.5
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 8.18 · 1.15%
Exp. move 1w± 19.72 · 2.77%
Gamma flip500.174
Net GEX (est.)$710m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall715
Put gamma wall716
Max pain720
P/C (OI)3.0429
P/C (vol)1.2757
Heaviest call OI732 · 730 · 755 · 735
Heaviest put OI540 · 716 · 530 · 535
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 30042.5 puts PDH 30042.5 in question above.
- Rejection at 30042.5 leaves it as resistance, with 29386.5 and PDL 29386.5 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 29386.5 puts PDL 29386.5 in question below.
- Between 29386.5 and 30042.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
7547 — 7615.5
PDH7615.5
PDL7547
Prior close7553.75
ATR16.59
EMA97572.64EMA207581.65EMA507581.11
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 5.2 · 0.69%
Exp. move 1w± 11.09 · 1.48%
Gamma flip620.197
Net GEX (est.)$435m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall747
Put gamma wall750
Max pain751
P/C (OI)0.7886
P/C (vol)1.2109
Heaviest call OI940 · 945 · 760 · 805
Heaviest put OI740 · 750 · 729 · 745
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7615.5 puts PDH 7615.5 in question above.
- Rejection at 7615.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7547 and PDL 7547 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7547 puts PDL 7547 in question below.
- Between 7547 and 7615.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
4002.5 — 4099.7
PDH4099.7
PDL3992.9
Prior close4008.7
ATR18.94
EMA94021.55EMA204044.37EMA504074.76
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 7.85 · 2.14%
Exp. move 1w± 10.45 · 2.85%
Net GEX (est.)$12m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall367
Put gamma wall373
Max pain376
P/C (OI)0.5219
P/C (vol)1.1507
Heaviest call OI390 · 380 · 382 · 386
Heaviest put OI373 · 360 · 370 · 365
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4099.7 puts PDH 4099.7 in question above.
- Rejection at 4099.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4002.5 and PDL 3992.9 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 4002.5 puts PDL 3992.9 in question below.
- Between 4002.5 and 4099.7, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
443 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$1.51M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
254
$9.02M est.
Sales
188
$10.52M est.
Index-relevant net
-$364K
9 buys · 15 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
HUBB
10 filings · 10B/0S
$87K
AAPL
7 filings · 3B/4S
-$33K
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
BEP
5 filings · 5B/0S
$65K
BIIB
5 filings · 4B/1S
$59K
ENTG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
BSX
5 filings · 4B/1S
$24K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· PURCHASE COHR
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE ORCL
Tim Moore
· SALE DASH
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
5 windows06:25 BST
FOMC Member Bowman SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 06:20–06:30
07:00 BST
OPEC Meeting
BLACKOUT 06:55–07:05
12:30 BST
3-Month Bill Auction
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
13:30 BST
Fed Waller SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 13:25–13:35
15:00 BST
Federal Budget Balance
BLACKOUT 14:55–15:05
Material Filings
(none)
Overnight Digest
- Why Analysts Still See Big Upside for Micron Stock After Its Massive Rally [Yahoo]
- IBM Just Unveiled Major Updates to Its Bob AI Platform. How to Play IBM Stock Here. [Yahoo]
- Coursera Stock Can Rally from Oversold Levels on Merger Synergies [Yahoo]
- US boomers should probably stop paying cash for their cars. Why a big ‘financial flex’ costs you thousands of dollars [Yahoo]
- Why Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) Is Emerging as a Leading AI Connectivity Play Across Copper and Optical Networking [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
Mood into the open is subdued and range-defined. NQ, ES, and GC all carry a CHOP regime tag, and each settled with its prior-day close in the lower third of its prior-day range — NQ at 29430.75, ES at 7553.75, GC at 4008.7 — so the session opens inside familiar territory rather than at fresh extremes. The macro flags read as a positive curve with loose financial conditions, a backdrop of easy liquidity rather than stress. Headlines are single-stock AI-adjacent chatter (Micron, IBM, Credo) with nothing index-moving attached, and material filings are empty. The calendar is speech-and-auction fare: Bowman remarks in the early London morning, an OPEC meeting shortly after, midday bill auctions, a Waller speech in the early afternoon, and the federal budget balance later in the afternoon — headline risk arrives in bursts around those windows, with quiet tape in between.