▚
MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-07 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · Fed Waller Speaks, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ between 29557.5 and 29916.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch, with the 29750 magnet, PDC 29852.25 and the EMA cluster at 29744.87, 29809.06 and 29859.49 all inside the range. Acceptance above 29916.75 puts PDH 30094 in question above, with the 30000 magnet between them; rejection at 29916.75 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 29683.25 and 29557.5 below as support. Acceptance below 29557.5 puts the 29500 magnet in question below. ES: between 7563 and 7595.5, rangebound, with the EMAs compressed at 7577.32, 7576.21 and 7565.21 and PDC 7585.75 sitting between 7563 and 7595.5. Acceptance above 7595.5 puts PDH 7602.25 in question above; rejection at 7595.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7563 and PDL 7538 below as support. Acceptance below 7563 puts PDL 7538 in question below, with the 7500 magnet beneath as support. GC: between 4127.7 and 4174.4, rangebound — PDC 4168.5 and the EMAs at 4148.38, 4156.67 and 4153.92 sit inside. Acceptance above 4174.4 puts PDH 4215.9 in question above, with the 4250 magnet beyond that; rejection at 4174.4 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 4140.5 and 4127.7 below as support. Acceptance below 4127.7 puts PDL 4140.5 in question as overhead. Across all three, the late-morning services data and the midday Waller remarks are the windows where acceptance or rejection at these edges gets decided; until then, rangebound between the ON extremes is the map.
NQ
CHOP
middle third of range
Overnight range
29557.5 — 29916.8
PDH30094
PDL29683.2
Prior close29852.2
ATR105.34
EMA929744.9EMA2029809.1EMA5029859.5
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 1.08 · 0.15%
Exp. move 1w± 18.01 · 2.54%
Net GEX (est.)$949m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall710
Put gamma wall709
Max pain724
P/C (OI)1.6366
P/C (vol)1.0684
Heaviest call OI730 · 725 · 727 · 740
Heaviest put OI500 · 724 · 710 · 700
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29916.75 puts PDH 30094 in question above.
- Rejection at 29916.75 leaves it as resistance, with 29557.5 and PDL 29683.25 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 29557.5 puts PDL 29683.25 in question below.
- Between 29557.5 and 29916.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
7563 — 7595.5
PDH7602.25
PDL7538
Prior close7585.75
ATR11.68
EMA97577.32EMA207576.21EMA507565.21
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 0.525 · 0.07%
Exp. move 1w± 9.07 · 1.21%
Net GEX (est.)$3.16bn · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall748
Put gamma wall748
Max pain749
P/C (OI)0.9497
P/C (vol)1.1328
Heaviest call OI753 · 751 · 755 · 760
Heaviest put OI750 · 745 · 748 · 747
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7595.5 puts PDH 7602.25 in question above.
- Rejection at 7595.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7563 and PDL 7538 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7563 puts PDL 7538 in question below.
- Between 7563 and 7595.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
above EMA stack
middle third of range
Overnight range
4127.7 — 4174.4
PDH4215.9
PDL4140.5
Prior close4168.5
ATR13.01
EMA94148.38EMA204156.67EMA504153.92
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 4.405 · 1.17%
Exp. move 1w± 8.3 · 2.20%
Gamma flip383.914
Net GEX (est.)$-5m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall380
Put gamma wall376
Max pain376
P/C (OI)0.7841
P/C (vol)1.0793
Heaviest call OI425 · 385 · 390 · 388
Heaviest put OI357 · 376 · 365 · 363
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4174.4 puts PDH 4215.9 in question above.
- Rejection at 4174.4 leaves it as resistance, with 4127.7 and PDL 4140.5 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 4127.7 puts PDL 4140.5 in question below.
- Between 4127.7 and 4174.4, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
397 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$1.83M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
224
$8.68M est.
Sales
172
$10.51M est.
Index-relevant net
-$267K
9 buys · 12 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
T
5 filings · 4B/1S
$67K
HUBB
5 filings · 5B/0S
$47K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
AAPL
5 filings · 3B/2S
$33K
BWXT
4 filings · 4B/0S
$81K
BIIB
4 filings · 4B/0S
$74K
AMD
4 filings · 4B/0S
$32K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Tim Moore
· SALE T
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE ORCL
Josh Gottheimer
· SALE ABBV
Josh Gottheimer
· PURCHASE AMD
Josh Gottheimer
· PURCHASE ADI
Josh Gottheimer
· PURCHASE FN
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
5 windows10:45 BST
S&P Global Composite PMI
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:40–10:50
11:00 BST
CB Employment Trends IndexTIER-1
+5 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
12:00 BST
Fed Waller SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 11:55–12:05
12:30 BST
3-Month Bill Auction
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
16:30 BST
CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions
+10 more at this time
BLACKOUT 16:25–16:35
Material Filings
- GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- META: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
Overnight Digest
- PTC Inc. Earnings Preview: What to Expect [Yahoo]
- What You Need to Know Ahead of Meta Platforms' Earnings Release [Yahoo]
- Tyler Technologies' Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know [Yahoo]
- Why Munis Matter in 2026 & Where to Find Yield [Yahoo]
- Is Microsoft Stock Too Cheap Here? One Play is to Short Cash-Secured MSFT Puts [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
Overnight tone is muted and mixed: all three instruments carry a CHOP regime tag, with ATRs of 105.34 on NQ, 11.68 on ES and 13.01 on GC framing a modest expected-nothing tape — ES closed in the upper third of its prior-day range while NQ and GC closed mid-range, an undecided finish. The macro backdrop reads calm rather than stressed: the yield curve is positively sloped and financial conditions are loose. The calendar is services-heavy — S&P Global composite and services PMIs late morning, the full ISM services suite at the top of the hour after, Fed Waller remarks midday, then bill auctions and the afternoon CFTC positioning batch; those windows are the session's event risk. Headlines are quiet and earnings-preview driven (Meta among them), and insider filing activity in GOOGL, META and NVDA is background context rather than a catalyst. In short: a range-carrying overnight session into a data-dense morning, with mood defined by waiting rather than conviction.