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MARKET SAVANT

PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-08-04 · context & synthesis, not a signal

MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · Atlanta Fed GDPNow, ISM Manufacturing Employment
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
⚠ synthesis withheld — narrative failed no-direction gate
NQ CHOP above EMA stack upper third of range
NQ chart
Overnight range 28382.8 — 28942.5
PDH28965
PDL28313
Prior close28929.2
ATR120.68
EMA928816.6EMA2028705.8EMA5028507.7
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
NQ gamma profile
Exp. move (QQQ)± 6.44 · 0.92%
Exp. move 1w± 16.76 · 2.39%
Gamma flip520.433
Net GEX (est.)$-513m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall700
Put gamma wall700
Max pain681
P/C (OI)1.8429
P/C (vol)1.1215
Heaviest call OI710 · 705 · 700 · 709
Heaviest put OI575 · 635 · 620 · 650
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 28942.5 puts PDH 28965 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 28942.5 leaves it as resistance, with 28382.75 and PDL 28313 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 28382.75 puts PDL 28313 in question below.
  4. Between 28382.75 and 28942.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES CHOP above EMA stack upper third of range
ES chart
Overnight range 7545.25 — 7638.25
PDH7638.5
PDL7542.75
Prior close7631.25
ATR14.8
EMA97612.31EMA207586.09EMA507539.45
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
ES gamma profile
Exp. move (SPY)± 2.835 · 0.37%
Exp. move 1w± 9.21 · 1.22%
Gamma flip621.382
Net GEX (est.)$-1.73bn · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall758
Put gamma wall750
Max pain743
P/C (OI)1.3367
P/C (vol)0.909
Heaviest call OI749 · 744 · 750 · 748
Heaviest put OI714 · 721 · 704 · 703
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 7638.25 puts PDH 7638.5 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 7638.25 leaves it as resistance, with 7545.25 and PDL 7542.75 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 7545.25 puts PDL 7542.75 in question below.
  4. Between 7545.25 and 7638.25, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC CHOP middle third of range
GC chart
Overnight range 4098.1 — 4134.7
PDH4134.7
PDL4074
Prior close4111
ATR14.43
EMA94102.01EMA204105.29EMA504112.29
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
GC gamma profile
Exp. move (GLD)± 4.065 · 1.09%
Exp. move 1w± 7.65 · 2.06%
Gamma flip375.961
Net GEX (est.)$-2m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall375
Put gamma wall370
Max pain370
P/C (OI)0.8454
P/C (vol)0.8308
Heaviest call OI380 · 375 · 383 · 378
Heaviest put OI367 · 360 · 363 · 370
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 4134.7 puts PDH 4134.7 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 4134.7 leaves it as resistance, with 4098.1 and PDL 4074 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 4098.1 puts PDL 4074 in question below.
  4. Between 4098.1 and 4134.7, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.

Congressional Trading

1026 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate as of 2026-08-04 · last 50 days
Net flow (est.) -$11.79M
net selling (est.)
Purchases 801
$13.30M est.
Sales 220
$25.09M est.
Index-relevant net $606K
20 buys · 10 sells

Top tickers by disclosures

AAPL 6 filings · 3B/3S $318K
BRK.B 6 filings · 6B/0S $140K
HUBB 6 filings · 6B/0S $48K
HD 5 filings · 2B/3S -$124K
GOOG 5 filings · 4B/1S $91K
NVDA 5 filings · 3B/2S $51K
MSFT 5 filings · 4B/1S $49K
SPCX 4 filings · 4B/0S $57K

Recent notable disclosures

Daniel Meuser · PURCHASE SPCX
$15,001 - $50,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE AWK
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE CSX
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE DUK
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE LMT
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE MA
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE NEE
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE PFE
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE PG
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE AAPL
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-08
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.

Catalyst Timeline

5 windows
10:45 BST
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
BLACKOUT 10:40–10:50
11:00 BST
Construction SpendingTIER-1
+4 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
12:30 BST
3-Month Bill AuctionTIER-1
+2 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
15:00 BST
Loan Officer Survey
BLACKOUT 14:55–15:05
17:40 BST
Total Vehicle Sales
BLACKOUT 17:35–17:45

Material Filings

(none)

Overnight Digest

  • Cathie Wood sells $5.5 million of surging tech stock [Yahoo]
  • Seagate Rallies on Strong Q4 Results and Guidance. What Does This Mean for STX Stock Here. [Yahoo]
  • The tech stock dumpster fire should remind you of this important investing lesson [Yahoo]
  • Xi Jinping warns world is ‘crumbling into disarray’ as 'dangerous' U.S. blockade hits markets. Protect your nest egg now [Yahoo]
  • HSBC Says Stocks Have More Room to Rise as Market Sell Signal Fades [Yahoo]

Sentiment Read

Tone: mixed (from 44 headlines).
Data quality notes