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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-15 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · CPI, CPI Index, n.s.a.
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
Compressed overnight ranges into a CPI print; ATRs of 118.55 (NQ), 21.16 (ES), 19.76 (GC) frame the day's expected travel, and the 09:25–09:35 blackout is the pivot. NQ: acceptance above ON high 29922 puts PDH 29922 in question above; rejection at 29922 leaves it as resistance, with 29303.25 and PDL 29303.25 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 29303.25 puts PDL 29303.25 in question below; between 29303.25 and 29922, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch, with magnets at 29750, 29500, and 30000. ES: acceptance above ON high 7613.75 puts PDH 7613.75 in question above; rejection at 7613.75 leaves it as resistance, with 7531.75 and PDL 7531.75 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 7531.75 puts PDL 7531.75 in question below; between 7531.75 and 7613.75, rangebound, with magnets at 7500, 7750, and 7250. GC: acceptance above ON high 4112.6 puts PDH 4112.6 in question above; rejection at 4112.6 leaves it as resistance, with 3990.1 and PDL 3990.1 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 3990.1 puts PDL 3990.1 in question below; between 3990.1 and 4112.6, rangebound, with magnets at 4000, 4250, and 3750. Treat the CPI blackout and the afternoon Fed slate as the moments where these ON edges are tested; holds above or losses of those levels define the day.
NQ
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
29303.2 — 29922
PDH29922
PDL29303.2
Prior close29794.8
ATR118.55
EMA929774EMA2029708.1EMA5029682.6
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 6.69 · 0.93%
Exp. move 1w± 18.175 · 2.53%
Gamma flip679.902
Net GEX (est.)$-593m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall720
Put gamma wall715
Max pain715
P/C (OI)1.0173
P/C (vol)1.1551
Heaviest call OI720 · 730 · 725 · 750
Heaviest put OI700 · 645 · 690 · 500
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29922 puts PDH 29922 in question above.
- Rejection at 29922 leaves it as resistance, with 29303.25 and PDL 29303.25 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 29303.25 puts PDL 29303.25 in question below.
- Between 29303.25 and 29922, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
7531.75 — 7613.75
PDH7613.75
PDL7531.75
Prior close7590.5
ATR21.16
EMA97584.83EMA207577.6EMA507575.34
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 3.675 · 0.49%
Exp. move 1w± 9.89 · 1.32%
Gamma flip697.72
Net GEX (est.)$-768m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall757
Put gamma wall750
Max pain750
P/C (OI)0.7606
P/C (vol)0.887
Heaviest call OI757 · 769 · 750 · 755
Heaviest put OI745 · 728 · 740 · 750
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7613.75 puts PDH 7613.75 in question above.
- Rejection at 7613.75 leaves it as resistance, with 7531.75 and PDL 7531.75 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7531.75 puts PDL 7531.75 in question below.
- Between 7531.75 and 7613.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
middle third of range
Overnight range
3990.1 — 4112.6
PDH4112.6
PDL3990.1
Prior close4058.5
ATR19.76
EMA94062.07EMA204054.11EMA504058.81
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 4.08 · 1.10%
Exp. move 1w± 9.875 · 2.65%
Gamma flip370.985
Net GEX (est.)$-25m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall372
Put gamma wall373
Max pain371
P/C (OI)0.629
P/C (vol)0.8306
Heaviest call OI390 · 380 · 372 · 378
Heaviest put OI365 · 360 · 373 · 359
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4112.6 puts PDH 4112.6 in question above.
- Rejection at 4112.6 leaves it as resistance, with 3990.1 and PDL 3990.1 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 3990.1 puts PDL 3990.1 in question below.
- Between 3990.1 and 4112.6, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
447 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$1.51M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
256
$9.03M est.
Sales
190
$10.54M est.
Index-relevant net
-$364K
9 buys · 15 sells
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Recent notable disclosures
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Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
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· PURCHASE SPCX
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Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
11 windows07:00 BST
NFIB Small Business Optimism
BLACKOUT 06:55–07:05
09:15 BST
ADP Employment Change Weekly
BLACKOUT 09:10–09:20
09:30 BST
Core CPITIER-1
+8 more at this time
BLACKOUT 09:25–09:35
09:55 BST
Redbook
BLACKOUT 09:50–10:00
12:00 BST
Cleveland CPITIER-1
BLACKOUT 11:55–12:05
13:40 BST
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 13:35–13:45
14:00 BST
Fed Goolsbee SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 13:55–14:05
14:30 BST
Fed Governor Cook SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 14:25–14:35
15:55 BST
FOMC Member Bowman SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 15:50–16:00
17:00 BST
US Foreign Buying, T-bonds
+3 more at this time
BLACKOUT 16:55–17:05
17:30 BST
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
BLACKOUT 17:25–17:35
Material Filings
(none)
Overnight Digest
- Strategy Leaves Bitcoin Holdings Unchanged [Yahoo]
- 'Dirty Jobs' host Mike Rowe: We have become untethered from the definition of work [Yahoo]
- Stablecoin Market Cap Declines By $10 Billion [Yahoo]
- UBS keeps GSK at 'neutral' with focus on chief executive's strategy update [Yahoo]
- What to Expect From Williams Companies' Q2 2026 Earnings Report [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
A CPI-day tape sitting in CHOP across the board. NQ, ES, and GC all print overnight ranges fully contained inside their prior-day ranges, with PDC in the upper third for NQ (29794.75) and ES (7590.5) and in the middle third for GC (4058.5). EMAs are stacked tight — NQ's 9/20/50 at 29773.95/29708.06/29682.6, ES at 7584.83/7577.6/7575.34, GC at 4062.07/4054.11/4058.81 — coiled, not extended. The macro backdrop reads constructive on plumbing: a 2s10s_positive & NFCI_loose flag pair. The calendar is the story: US CPI and Core CPI at 09:30 BST inside a 09:25–09:35 blackout, Cleveland CPI at 12:00, and a heavy Fed speaker slate — Barr, Goolsbee, Cook, Bowman — strung across the afternoon. Headlines are quiet and off-index (crypto flows, single-name broker notes), so the tape is waiting on data, not narrative.