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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-21 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · no scheduled index catalyst
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ acceptance above ON high 29110.5 puts PDH 29192.5 in question above; rejection at 29110.5 leaves it as resistance, with 28750 and PDL 28750 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 28750 puts PDL 28750 in question below. Between 28750 and 29110.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch, and with PDC 28777.75 in the lower third of the prior-day range the magnets at 28750, 29000 and 28500 mark the reference points. ES: acceptance above ON high 7545.5 puts PDH 7552.25 in question above; rejection at 7545.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7476.75 and PDL 7476.75 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 7476.75 puts PDL 7476.75 in question below. Between 7476.75 and 7545.5, rangebound, with PDC 7483.5 sitting near the lower edge and magnets at 7500, 7250 and 7750 as reference. GC: acceptance above ON high 4046.1 puts PDH 4046.1 in question above; rejection at 4046.1 leaves it as resistance, with 3986.6 and PDL 3986.6 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 3986.6 puts PDL 3986.6 in question below. Between 3986.6 and 4046.1, rangebound — PDC 4011.7 holds the middle third with magnets at 4000, 4250 and 3750. Across all three, the 11:00 and 12:30 BST blackouts are the windows where those conditional levels are most in question.
NQ
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
28750 — 29110.5
PDH29192.5
PDL28750
Prior close28777.8
ATR132.89
EMA928888.1EMA2028903.7EMA5028993.7
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 7.98 · 1.15%
Exp. move 1w± 21.02 · 3.02%
Gamma flip500.671
Net GEX (est.)$308m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall700
Put gamma wall695
Max pain706
P/C (OI)1.4288
P/C (vol)1.3885
Heaviest call OI720 · 735 · 725 · 738
Heaviest put OI675 · 680 · 605 · 682
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29110.5 puts PDH 29192.5 in question above.
- Rejection at 29110.5 leaves it as resistance, with 28750 and PDL 28750 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 28750 puts PDL 28750 in question below.
- Between 28750 and 29110.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
7476.75 — 7545.5
PDH7552.25
PDL7476.75
Prior close7483.5
ATR21.07
EMA97501.1EMA207507.77EMA507524.19
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 4.84 · 0.65%
Exp. move 1w± 12.325 · 1.66%
Gamma flip620.138
Net GEX (est.)$1.19bn · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall745
Put gamma wall745
Max pain749
P/C (OI)0.9722
P/C (vol)1.1561
Heaviest call OI770 · 757 · 794 · 755
Heaviest put OI730 · 729 · 726 · 745
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7545.5 puts PDH 7552.25 in question above.
- Rejection at 7545.5 leaves it as resistance, with 7476.75 and PDL 7476.75 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7476.75 puts PDL 7476.75 in question below.
- Between 7476.75 and 7545.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
below EMA stack
middle third of range
Overnight range
3986.6 — 4046.1
PDH4046.1
PDL3986.6
Prior close4011.7
ATR14.25
EMA94013.2EMA204014.03EMA504014.96
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 4.57 · 1.24%
Exp. move 1w± 7.675 · 2.09%
Gamma flip295.13
Net GEX (est.)$-1m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall370
Put gamma wall365
Max pain369
P/C (OI)0.5245
P/C (vol)0.9877
Heaviest call OI395 · 394 · 385 · 383
Heaviest put OI345 · 363 · 360 · 359
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4046.1 puts PDH 4046.1 in question above.
- Rejection at 4046.1 leaves it as resistance, with 3986.6 and PDL 3986.6 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 3986.6 puts PDL 3986.6 in question below.
- Between 3986.6 and 4046.1, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
416 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$3.65M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
225
$3.84M est.
Sales
186
$7.49M est.
Index-relevant net
-$413K
7 buys · 16 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
HUBB
10 filings · 10B/0S
$87K
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
NVDA
5 filings · 1B/4S
-$383K
AAPL
5 filings · 1B/4S
-$73K
BEP
5 filings · 5B/0S
$65K
BIIB
5 filings · 4B/1S
$59K
ENTG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE AWK
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE CSX
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE DUK
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE LMT
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE MA
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE NEE
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
2 windows11:00 BST
US Leading Index
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
12:30 BST
3-Month Bill Auction
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
Material Filings
- GOOGL: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
Overnight Digest
- Microsoft cut 4,800 jobs, filed 2,879 H-1B visas — but the real reason behind its $1.2T market value drop is far bigger [Yahoo]
- A $1.7 Billion Reason to Buy Bloom Energy Stock Now [Yahoo]
- Weekly Stock List [Yahoo]
- Why IBM Stock Crashed 25% Even as AI Spending Exploded [Yahoo]
- Why Analysts Still See Nvidia as the Top Chip Stock to Buy for Q2 Earnings Season [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
Mood reads mixed and headline-heavy against a CHOP regime across all three instruments. The single-name tape is doing the talking: Microsoft's 4,800 job cuts and 2,879 H-1B filings sit alongside a 1.2 trillion market-value story, while a 1.7 billion catalyst circulates around Bloom Energy and the chip complex stays in focus into earnings season. Rates backdrop is constructive-to-neutral with 2s10s positive and NFCI loose, and a GOOGL Form-4 insider filing rounds out the flow. The calendar is light but punctuated: US Leading Index at 11:00 BST inside a 10:55-11:05 blackout, then 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 12:30 BST inside a 12:25-12:35 blackout. Narrow overnight ranges and compressed EMAs — NQ 9:28888.06 / 20:28903.74 / 50:28993.67, ES 9:7501.1 / 20:7507.77 / 50:7524.19, GC 9:4013.2 / 20:4014.03 / 50:4014.96 — describe a market coiled and news-sensitive rather than trending, with ATRs of 132.89 on NQ, 21.07 on ES and 14.25 on GC framing the day's expected travel.