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MARKET SAVANT

PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-20 · context & synthesis, not a signal

MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · no scheduled index catalyst
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ is rangebound between 28554.75 and 29124, the overnight extremes as the edges to watch, with PDC 28768.75 sitting in the middle third and the 9/20 EMAs (28813.38 / 28873.09) threaded through that zone. Acceptance above 29124 puts PDH 29124 in question above; rejection at 29124 leaves it as resistance, with 28554.75 and PDL 28408.25 below as support. Acceptance below 28554.75 puts PDL 28408.25 in question below. ES is rangebound between 7484.5 and 7563.75, with PDC 7495 in the lower third and the 9 EMA at 7509.46 overhead; acceptance above 7563.75 puts PDH 7563.75 in question above, while rejection there leaves it as resistance with 7484.5 and PDL 7473 below as support, and acceptance below 7484.5 puts PDL 7473 in question below. GC holds a tighter frame between 3967.7 and 4023.3, PDC 4023.1 in the upper third and the EMA cluster (4013.36 / 4007.49 / 4014.42) knotted just beneath; acceptance above 4023.3 puts PDH 4029 in question above, rejection at 4023.3 leaves it as resistance with 3967.7 and PDL 3962.9 below as support, and acceptance below 3967.7 puts PDL 3962.9 in question below. Across all three, the overnight boundaries are the reference edges and the Iran headline flow is the catalyst that either holds these ranges intact or forces the conditional break.
NQ CHOP below EMA stack middle third of range
NQ chart
Overnight range 28554.8 — 29124
PDH29124
PDL28408.2
Prior close28768.8
ATR156.29
EMA928813.4EMA2028873.1EMA5029124.5
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
NQ gamma profile
Exp. move (QQQ)± 9.615 · 1.38%
Exp. move 1w± 22.9 · 3.29%
Gamma flip520.419
Net GEX (est.)$681m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall700
Put gamma wall691
Max pain711
P/C (OI)1.768
P/C (vol)1.0535
Heaviest call OI725 · 730 · 740 · 715
Heaviest put OI680 · 691 · 700 · 555
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 29124 puts PDH 29124 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 29124 leaves it as resistance, with 28554.75 and PDL 28408.25 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 28554.75 puts PDL 28408.25 in question below.
  4. Between 28554.75 and 29124, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES CHOP below EMA stack lower third of range
ES chart
Overnight range 7484.5 — 7563.75
PDH7563.75
PDL7473
Prior close7495
ATR21.82
EMA97509.46EMA207521.91EMA507549.19
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
ES gamma profile
Exp. move (SPY)± 5.655 · 0.76%
Exp. move 1w± 13.2 · 1.78%
Gamma flip620.543
Net GEX (est.)$1.80bn · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall745
Put gamma wall745
Max pain752
P/C (OI)1.0876
P/C (vol)1.1982
Heaviest call OI760 · 755 · 800 · 765
Heaviest put OI736 · 735 · 750 · 745
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 7563.75 puts PDH 7563.75 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 7563.75 leaves it as resistance, with 7484.5 and PDL 7473 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 7484.5 puts PDL 7473 in question below.
  4. Between 7484.5 and 7563.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC CHOP above EMA stack upper third of range
GC chart
Overnight range 3967.7 — 4023.3
PDH4029
PDL3962.9
Prior close4023.1
ATR16.05
EMA94013.36EMA204007.49EMA504014.42
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
GC gamma profile
Exp. move (GLD)± 3.87 · 1.05%
Exp. move 1w± 9.575 · 2.60%
Gamma flip320.272
Net GEX (est.)$4m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall370
Put gamma wall365
Max pain369
P/C (OI)1.5492
P/C (vol)0.5148
Heaviest call OI380 · 370 · 375 · 373
Heaviest put OI350 · 358 · 365 · 360
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 4023.3 puts PDH 4029 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 4023.3 leaves it as resistance, with 3967.7 and PDL 3962.9 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 3967.7 puts PDL 3962.9 in question below.
  4. Between 3967.7 and 4023.3, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.

Congressional Trading

421 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate as of 2026-07-20 · last 50 days
Net flow (est.) -$3.64M
net selling (est.)
Purchases 228
$3.87M est.
Sales 188
$7.51M est.
Index-relevant net -$405K
8 buys · 16 sells

Top tickers by disclosures

HUBB 10 filings · 10B/0S $87K
AAPL 6 filings · 2B/4S -$65K
LPLA 6 filings · 6B/0S $48K
NVDA 5 filings · 1B/4S -$383K
BEP 5 filings · 5B/0S $65K
BIIB 5 filings · 4B/1S $59K
ENTG 5 filings · 5B/0S $40K
TDG 5 filings · 5B/0S $40K

Recent notable disclosures

Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE NVDA
$100,001 - $250,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-06-02
Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE NVDA
$100,001 - $250,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-06-02
Tim Moore · PURCHASE T
$50,001 - $100,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-04
Daniel Meuser · PURCHASE SPCX
$15,001 - $50,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE AWK
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE CSX
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE DUK
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE LMT
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE MA
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Thomas H Tuberville · SALE NEE
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-07-16
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.

Catalyst Timeline

0 windows
(nothing scheduled)

Material Filings

  • GOOGL: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)

Overnight Digest

  • Silicon Photonics Investment Is Ramping Fast as AI Clusters Outgrow Copper Wiring. 2 AI Stocks Stand to Win. [Yahoo]
  • Dow Jones Futures Loom As U.S.-Iran Attacks Escalate; Google, Tesla, AMD Ahead [Yahoo]
  • Oppenheimer Downgraded IBM Following Its Sharp Post-Earnings Drop. What the Warning Means for IBM Stock. [Yahoo]
  • Synopsys Should Benefit No Matter Who Wins The AI Race. Here’s What Explains Its Poor Stock Performance. [Yahoo]
  • Ex-Goldman Credit Veteran Says Markets May Be Mispricing MicroStrategy’s STRC by 13% [Yahoo]

Sentiment Read

The tape reads mixed and headline-crossed. All three instruments sit in CHOP regime with compressed overnight ranges nested inside the prior day's boundaries — NQ ATR 156.29, ES ATR 21.82, GC ATR 16.05, none stretched. The macro backdrop is a 2s10s positive curve alongside a loose NFCI reading, an accommodative combination that sits underneath risk. Headlines pull two ways: escalating U.S.-Iran attacks put a geopolitical charge into the session, while the AI-infrastructure thread (silicon photonics, Synopsys, the AMD/Google/Tesla docket) keeps the semiconductor complex front-of-mind. Single-name noise — an IBM downgrade from Oppenheimer, a GOOGL Form-4 insider filing, a MicroStrategy STRC mispricing note — is stock-specific texture rather than index-level force. Net: a coiled, event-sensitive tape where the overnight extremes frame the conversation and the geopolitical wire is the swing variable.