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MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-10 · context & synthesis, not a signal
MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · Continuing Jobless Claims, FOMC Member Williams Speaks
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
NQ acceptance above the overnight high 29973.75 puts PDH 29993.25 in question above, with the 30000 magnet just beyond; rejection at 29973.75 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 29875.45 and 29750.64 and PDL 29396 below as support; between 29396 and 29973.75, rangebound — those extremes are the edges to watch. ES: acceptance above the overnight high 7592 puts PDH 7595 in question above; rejection at 7592 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 7576.15 and 7561.13 as support ahead of PDL 7524.75, where the overnight low and prior-day low coincide; acceptance below 7524.75 puts the 7500 magnet in question below; between 7524.75 and 7592, rangebound. GC: acceptance above the overnight high 4135.2 puts PDH 4148.8 in question above; rejection at 4135.2 leaves it as resistance, with the EMAs at 4131.03 and 4120.23 as nearby support and PDL 4063.3 as the lower edge; acceptance below 4063.3 puts that level in question as lost support; between 4063.3 and 4135.2, rangebound. Across all three, the claims release, the Fed remarks, and the long-bond auction are the windows where acceptance or rejection at these edges gets decided — prints inside the blackout windows around each event deserve caution.
NQ
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
29396 — 29973.8
PDH29993.2
PDL29396
Prior close29930.8
ATR116.54
EMA929875.5EMA2029750.6EMA5029626.6
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 6.92 · 0.96%
Exp. move 1w± 18.82 · 2.60%
Gamma flip523.573
Net GEX (est.)$-803m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall730
Put gamma wall720
Max pain715
P/C (OI)1.4889
P/C (vol)1.01
Heaviest call OI730 · 750 · 720 · 725
Heaviest put OI480 · 625 · 700 · 670
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29973.75 puts PDH 29993.25 in question above.
- Rejection at 29973.75 leaves it as resistance, with 29396 and PDL 29396 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 29396 puts PDL 29396 in question below.
- Between 29396 and 29973.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
7524.75 — 7592
PDH7595
PDL7524.75
Prior close7586.25
ATR16.32
EMA97576.15EMA207561.13EMA507549.97
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 3.42 · 0.46%
Exp. move 1w± 9.69 · 1.29%
Gamma flip487.624
Net GEX (est.)$-3.32bn · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall750
Put gamma wall750
Max pain745
P/C (OI)1.4421
P/C (vol)0.9959
Heaviest call OI760 · 750 · 755 · 748
Heaviest put OI740 · 700 · 540 · 720
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7592 puts PDH 7595 in question above.
- Rejection at 7592 leaves it as resistance, with 7524.75 and PDL 7524.75 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7524.75 puts PDL 7524.75 in question below.
- Between 7524.75 and 7592, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
4063.3 — 4135.2
PDH4148.8
PDL4063.3
Prior close4132.7
ATR13.79
EMA94131.03EMA204120.23EMA504115.86
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 3.955 · 1.05%
Exp. move 1w± 10.375 · 2.74%
Gamma flip321.009
Net GEX (est.)$-78m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall380
Put gamma wall375
Max pain375
P/C (OI)0.9487
P/C (vol)0.7237
Heaviest call OI395 · 390 · 425 · 375
Heaviest put OI350 · 355 · 345 · 351
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4135.2 puts PDH 4148.8 in question above.
- Rejection at 4135.2 leaves it as resistance, with 4063.3 and PDL 4063.3 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 4063.3 puts PDL 4063.3 in question below.
- Between 4063.3 and 4135.2, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
429 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$1.73M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
245
$8.94M est.
Sales
183
$10.67M est.
Index-relevant net
-$364K
9 buys · 15 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
HUBB
10 filings · 10B/0S
$87K
AAPL
7 filings · 3B/4S
-$33K
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
T
5 filings · 4B/1S
$67K
BEP
5 filings · 5B/0S
$65K
BIIB
5 filings · 4B/1S
$59K
ENTG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Tim Moore
· SALE T
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE AAPL
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· PURCHASE COHR
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE ORCL
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
8 windows09:30 BST
Continuing Jobless ClaimsTIER-1
+2 more at this time
BLACKOUT 09:25–09:35
10:00 BST
FOMC Member Williams SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 09:55–10:05
11:00 BST
Existing Home Sales
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
11:30 BST
Natural Gas Storage
BLACKOUT 11:25–11:35
12:30 BST
4-Week Bill Auction
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
14:01 BST
30-Year Bond Auction
BLACKOUT 13:56–14:06
14:30 BST
Fed Logan SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 14:25–14:35
17:30 BST
Fed's Balance SheetTIER-1
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 17:25–17:35
Material Filings
- AMZN 8-K (items 8.01, 9.01) — filed Jul 09
- GOOGL: 7 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- META: 2 Form-4 insider filing(s)
- NVDA: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
Overnight Digest
- Refinery Stocks Lead S&P 500 After Trump Ceasefire Comment [Yahoo]
- Is Insulet Corporation (PODD) Stock Still a Diabetes Device Growth Opportunity After Analyst Target Cut? [Yahoo]
- Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock a Buy After Tryngolza’s FDA Approval? [Yahoo]
- Is Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Stock Still a Healthcare Growth Opportunity After Analyst Target Cut? [Yahoo]
- Is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) Stock Still a Biotech Leader After Analyst Price Target Cut? [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
All three instruments come in under a CHOP regime — NQ ATR 116.54, ES 16.32, GC 13.79 — with each closing in the upper third of the prior day's range and overnight highs sitting just under prior-day highs, so the map is compressed at the top of the recent structure. The undertone is calm: the yield curve is positively sloped, financial conditions are loose, and refinery names led the tape on ceasefire headlines. The catalyst docket is dense rather than heavy — jobless claims in the London morning, Fed speakers Williams and Logan, home sales data, and a long-bond auction in the early afternoon — each a discrete volatility window punctuating an otherwise rangebound backdrop. Corporate flow is quiet: an Amazon current-events filing and routine insider filings at Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia.