▚
MARKET SAVANT
PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-20 · context & synthesis, not a signal
RISK-OFF
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · no scheduled index catalyst
3/3 boards CHOP · 0/3 trending
The Setup
Every instrument is rangebound between its overnight extremes, and those edges are the whole map today. NQ: acceptance above ON high 29124 puts PDH 29124 in question above; rejection at 29124 leaves it as resistance, with 28554.75 and PDL 28408.25 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 28554.75 puts PDL 28408.25 in question below; between 28554.75 and 29124, rangebound. The 9-EMA 28813.38, 20-EMA 28873.09 and 50-EMA 29124.46 all sit inside that band, with PDC 28768.75 in the middle third and the 29000 magnet nearby. ES: acceptance above ON high 7563.75 puts PDH 7563.75 in question above; rejection at 7563.75 leaves it as resistance, with 7484.5 and PDL 7473 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 7484.5 puts PDL 7473 in question below; between 7484.5 and 7563.75, rangebound. PDC 7495 sits in the lower third near the 7500 magnet, with EMAs stacked at 7509.46, 7521.91 and 7549.19 overhead. GC: acceptance above ON high 4023.3 puts PDH 4029 in question above; rejection at 4023.3 leaves it as resistance, with 3967.7 and PDL 3962.9 below as support. Acceptance below ON low 3967.7 puts PDL 3962.9 in question below; between 3967.7 and 4023.3, rangebound. PDC 4023.1 holds above the 4000 magnet in the upper third, with the 9-EMA 4013.36, 20-EMA 4007.49 and 50-EMA 4014.42 clustered just beneath the ON high. With 11 straight sub-1% sessions and CHOP across the board, the ON extremes are the lines that define whether these bands hold or come into question.
NQ
CHOP
below EMA stack
middle third of range
Overnight range
28554.8 — 29124
PDH29124
PDL28408.2
Prior close28768.8
ATR156.29
EMA928813.4EMA2028873.1EMA5029124.5
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 9.615 · 1.38%
Exp. move 1w± 22.9 · 3.29%
Gamma flip505.005
Net GEX (est.)$761m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall700
Put gamma wall691
Max pain711
P/C (OI)1.768
P/C (vol)0.9049
Heaviest call OI725 · 730 · 740 · 715
Heaviest put OI680 · 691 · 700 · 555
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 29124 puts PDH 29124 in question above.
- Rejection at 29124 leaves it as resistance, with 28554.75 and PDL 28408.25 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 28554.75 puts PDL 28408.25 in question below.
- Between 28554.75 and 29124, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES
CHOP
below EMA stack
lower third of range
Overnight range
7484.5 — 7563.75
PDH7563.75
PDL7473
Prior close7495
ATR21.82
EMA97509.46EMA207521.91EMA507549.19
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 5.655 · 0.76%
Exp. move 1w± 13.03 · 1.75%
Gamma flip625.005
Net GEX (est.)$1.87bn · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall745
Put gamma wall745
Max pain752
P/C (OI)1.088
P/C (vol)1.1978
Heaviest call OI760 · 755 · 800 · 765
Heaviest put OI736 · 735 · 750 · 745
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 7563.75 puts PDH 7563.75 in question above.
- Rejection at 7563.75 leaves it as resistance, with 7484.5 and PDL 7473 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 7484.5 puts PDL 7473 in question below.
- Between 7484.5 and 7563.75, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC
CHOP
above EMA stack
upper third of range
Overnight range
3967.7 — 4023.3
PDH4029
PDL3962.9
Prior close4023.1
ATR16.05
EMA94013.36EMA204007.49EMA504014.42
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 3.87 · 1.05%
Exp. move 1w± 9.575 · 2.60%
Gamma flip320.009
Net GEX (est.)$3m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall370
Put gamma wall365
Max pain369
P/C (OI)1.6487
P/C (vol)0.518
Heaviest call OI380 · 370 · 375 · 373
Heaviest put OI350 · 358 · 365 · 360
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
- Acceptance above ON high 4023.3 puts PDH 4029 in question above.
- Rejection at 4023.3 leaves it as resistance, with 3967.7 and PDL 3962.9 below as support.
- Acceptance below ON low 3967.7 puts PDL 3962.9 in question below.
- Between 3967.7 and 4023.3, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
Congressional Trading
416 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate
Net flow (est.)
-$3.63M
net selling (est.)
Purchases
226
$3.85M est.
Sales
185
$7.48M est.
Index-relevant net
-$389K
7 buys · 13 sells
Top tickers by disclosures
HUBB
10 filings · 10B/0S
$87K
LPLA
6 filings · 6B/0S
$48K
BEP
5 filings · 5B/0S
$65K
BIIB
5 filings · 4B/1S
$59K
AAPL
5 filings · 2B/3S
-$57K
ENTG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
TDG
5 filings · 5B/0S
$40K
BSX
5 filings · 4B/1S
$24K
Recent notable disclosures
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Sheldon Whitehouse
· SALE NVDA
Tim Moore
· PURCHASE T
Daniel Meuser
· PURCHASE SPCX
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE AWK
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE CSX
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE DUK
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE LMT
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE MA
Thomas H Tuberville
· SALE NEE
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.
Catalyst Timeline
0 windows(nothing scheduled)
Material Filings
(none)
Overnight Digest
- Market Overlooked Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Despite Robust Results [Yahoo]
- Chip Weakness Takes Hold, Nasdaq Stumbles [Yahoo]
- Stocks Pressured by a Renewed Selloff in Chipmakers [Yahoo]
- The S&P 500 Has Seen 11 Straight Days of Less Than 1% Moves [Yahoo]
- German state minister says higher tariffs could boost Chinese interest in VW plant [Yahoo]
Sentiment Read
The tape reads defensive with a semiconductor undertone: 'Chip Weakness Takes Hold, Nasdaq Stumbles' and 'Stocks Pressured by a Renewed Selloff in Chipmakers' both point to pressure concentrated in the chip complex, while 'Market Overlooked Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Despite Robust Results' shows single-name stories cutting against the broad tone. Underneath, compression is the headline of the headlines: 'The S&P 500 Has Seen 11 Straight Days of Less Than 1% Moves' — a coiled, low-range backdrop that matches every instrument printing a CHOP regime. NQ carries the widest ATR at 156.29 against ES at 21.82 and GC at 16.05, so the index complex is where the daily travel lives even inside the quiet. Cross-asset flags stay constructive-of-liquidity — 2s10s positive and NFCI loose — a calm plumbing read that sits alongside, not against, the chip-led caution up top. The macro overlay is thin, with a German-tariff note on VW the only geopolitical thread and no material filings to weigh. Mood: a market holding its breath in a tight range, with the semiconductor tape the live wire and single names the noise around it.