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MARKET SAVANT

PRE-MARKET BRIEFING · 2026-07-03 · context & synthesis, not a signal

MIXED / NEUTRAL
RANGEBOUND — ALL CHOP · Continuing Jobless Claims, FOMC Member Daly Speaks
5/5 boards CHOP · 0/5 trending
The Setup
NQ acceptance above the overnight high 30544.5 puts PDH 30807.75 in question above; rejection at 30544.5 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 30368.5 and the overnight low 30164.25 below as support. Between 30164.25 and 30544.5, rangebound, with the 30500 and 30250 magnets and the EMA cluster at 30395, 30423.2 and 30479.6 all inside that band. ES: acceptance above 6647 puts PDH 6684.75 in question above; rejection at 6647 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 6616.5 and 6517 below as support and the 6500 magnet beneath the overnight low. Between 6517 and 6647, rangebound. YM: acceptance above 46767 puts PDH 47036 in question above, with the 47000 magnet just inside that level; rejection at 46767 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 46480 and 46172 below as support and the 46750 and 46500 magnets inside the range. Between 46172 and 46767, rangebound. RTY: acceptance above 2558.4 puts PDH 2565.6 in question above; rejection at 2558.4 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 2529.3 and 2505.2 below as support and the 2500 magnet just under the overnight low. Between 2505.2 and 2558.4, rangebound, with ATR 17.4 roughly a third of that band. GC: acceptance above 5101 puts PDH 5175 in question above; rejection at 5101 leaves it as resistance, with PDL 4712.8 and 4705.6 below as support. Between 4705.6 and 5101, rangebound — a very wide band even against ATR 147.32 — with the 5000 and 4750 magnets and the EMA stack at 4799.83, 4791.97 and 4775.48 sitting inside it. Across all five, the overnight extremes are the edges to watch, and acceptance or rejection at those edges only carries weight outside the payrolls blackout.
NQ CHOP lower third of range
Overnight range 30164.2 — 30544.5
PDH30807.8
PDL30368.5
Prior close30395.2
ATR118.3
EMA930395EMA2030423.2EMA5030479.6
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (QQQ)± 8.98 · 1.26%
Exp. move 1w± 19.32 · 2.71%
Net GEX (est.)$263m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall729
Put gamma wall720
Max pain725
P/C (OI)1.6755
P/C (vol)0.901
Heaviest call OI760 · 729 · 740 · 730
Heaviest put OI560 · 570 · 690 · 695
Retail GEX estimate from QQQ ETF options as a proxy for NQ; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; QQQ ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 30544.5 puts PDH 30807.75 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 30544.5 leaves it as resistance, with 30164.25 and PDL 30368.5 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 30164.25 puts PDL 30368.5 in question below.
  4. Between 30164.25 and 30544.5, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
ES CHOP above EMA stack lower third of range
Overnight range 6517 — 6647
PDH6684.75
PDL6616.5
Prior close6629.75
ATR27.98
EMA96555.44EMA206577.44EMA506603.29
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (SPY)± 4.41 · 0.59%
Exp. move 1w± 9.47 · 1.27%
Gamma flip749.25
Net GEX (est.)$-429m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall750
Put gamma wall746
Max pain743
P/C (OI)1.5396
P/C (vol)0.9424
Heaviest call OI750 · 760 · 773 · 755
Heaviest put OI600 · 680 · 722 · 735
Retail GEX estimate from SPY ETF options as a proxy for ES; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; SPY ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 6647 puts PDH 6684.75 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 6647 leaves it as resistance, with 6517 and PDL 6616.5 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 6517 puts PDL 6616.5 in question below.
  4. Between 6517 and 6647, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
YM CHOP above EMA stack lower third of range
Overnight range 46172 — 46767
PDH47036
PDL46480
Prior close46645
ATR215.93
EMA946385.8EMA2046449.5EMA5046513.8
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (DIA)± 6.575 · 1.25%
Exp. move 1w± 10.4 · 1.97%
Gamma flip400.435
Net GEX (est.)$-46m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall530
Put gamma wall525
Max pain519
P/C (OI)0.8868
P/C (vol)1.6754
Heaviest call OI530 · 550 · 555 · 536
Heaviest put OI502 · 520 · 525 · 495
Retail GEX estimate from DIA ETF options as a proxy for YM; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; DIA ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 46767 puts PDH 47036 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 46767 leaves it as resistance, with 46172 and PDL 46480 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 46172 puts PDL 46480 in question below.
  4. Between 46172 and 46767, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
RTY CHOP above EMA stack middle third of range
Overnight range 2505.2 — 2558.4
PDH2565.6
PDL2529.3
Prior close2546.5
ATR17.4
EMA92521.71EMA202526.91EMA502529.52
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (IWM)± 2.815 · 0.95%
Exp. move 1w± 5.85 · 1.97%
Gamma flip180
Net GEX (est.)$50m · net long gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall303
Put gamma wall296
Max pain300
P/C (OI)1.8483
P/C (vol)0.7995
Heaviest call OI303 · 304 · 302 · 310
Heaviest put OI288 · 282 · 285 · 292
Retail GEX estimate from IWM ETF options as a proxy for RTY; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; IWM ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 2558.4 puts PDH 2565.6 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 2558.4 leaves it as resistance, with 2505.2 and PDL 2529.3 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 2505.2 puts PDL 2529.3 in question below.
  4. Between 2505.2 and 2558.4, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.
GC CHOP below EMA stack lower third of range
Overnight range 4705.6 — 5101
PDH5175
PDL4712.8
Prior close4722.6
ATR147.32
EMA94799.83EMA204791.97EMA504775.48
OPTIONS / POSITIONING ▸
Exp. move (GLD)± 5.745 · 1.52%
Exp. move 1w± 10.125 · 2.68%
Gamma flip378.19
Net GEX (est.)$-13m · net short gamma (est.)
Call gamma wall380
Put gamma wall370
Max pain371
P/C (OI)0.9819
P/C (vol)0.2014
Heaviest call OI400 · 390 · 500 · 380
Heaviest put OI350 · 370 · 345 · 355
Retail GEX estimate from GLD ETF options as a proxy for GC; dealer short-call/long-put sign assumption; GLD ≠ index ≠ future — positioning map, not a measured dealer book.
SCENARIOS ▸
  1. Acceptance above ON high 5101 puts PDH 5175 in question above.
  2. Rejection at 5101 leaves it as resistance, with 4705.6 and PDL 4712.8 below as support.
  3. Acceptance below ON low 4705.6 puts PDL 4712.8 in question below.
  4. Between 4705.6 and 5101, rangebound — the ON extremes are the edges to watch.

Congressional Trading

403 disclosures · 50d
STOCK Act disclosures · House, Senate as of 2026-07-03 · last 50 days
Net flow (est.) -$1.81M
net selling (est.)
Purchases 228
$8.71M est.
Sales 174
$10.52M est.
Index-relevant net -$259K
10 buys · 12 sells

Top tickers by disclosures

LPLA 6 filings · 6B/0S $48K
AAPL 6 filings · 4B/2S $41K
T 5 filings · 4B/1S $67K
HUBB 5 filings · 5B/0S $47K
TDG 5 filings · 5B/0S $40K
BWXT 4 filings · 4B/0S $81K
BIIB 4 filings · 4B/0S $74K
AMD 4 filings · 4B/0S $32K

Recent notable disclosures

Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE NVDA
$100,001 - $250,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-06-02
Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE NVDA
$100,001 - $250,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-06-02
Tim Moore · PURCHASE T
$50,001 - $100,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-04
Daniel Meuser · PURCHASE SPCX
$15,001 - $50,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-16
Tim Moore · SALE T
$15,001 - $50,000 · House · disc. 2026-05-21
Sheldon Whitehouse · SALE ORCL
$15,001 - $50,000 · Senate · disc. 2026-06-02
Josh Gottheimer · SALE ABBV
$1,001 - $15,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-02
Josh Gottheimer · PURCHASE AMD
$1,001 - $15,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-02
Josh Gottheimer · PURCHASE ADI
$1,001 - $15,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-02
Josh Gottheimer · PURCHASE FN
$1,001 - $15,000 · House · disc. 2026-06-02
Parsed STOCK Act disclosures (House + Senate), House, Senate chamber(s) with data in the last 50d. Disclosures LAG the actual trade by up to ~45 days (reporting window) — this is a map of what was FILED, not live positioning. Amount ranges are DISCLOSURE BUCKETS; all notional figures are midpoint ESTIMATES, not exact dollars. Descriptive only — no directional inference.

Catalyst Timeline

8 windows
05:00 BST
Total Vehicle Sales
BLACKOUT 04:55–05:05
08:45 BST
FOMC Member Daly SpeaksTIER-1
BLACKOUT 08:40–08:50
09:30 BST
Average Hourly EarningsTIER-1
+12 more at this time
BLACKOUT 09:25–09:35
11:00 BST
All Car Sales
+5 more at this time
BLACKOUT 10:55–11:05
11:30 BST
Natural Gas Storage
BLACKOUT 11:25–11:35
12:30 BST
4-Week Bill Auction
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 12:25–12:35
14:00 BST
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 13:55–14:05
17:30 BST
Fed's Balance SheetTIER-1
+1 more at this time
BLACKOUT 17:25–17:35

Material Filings

  • NVDA 8-K (items 5.02) — filed Jul 02
  • NVDA 8-K (items 5.07) — filed Jun 30
  • AMZN: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
  • GOOGL: 8 Form-4 insider filing(s)
  • MSFT: 1 Form-4 insider filing(s)
  • NVDA: 9 Form-4 insider filing(s)

Overnight Digest

  • Could Canopy Growth Stock Deliver a 4X Gain? 1 Analyst Thinks So. [Yahoo]
  • Comcast (CMCSA) Stock Has Fallen 50%, Why Are Analysts Suddenly Turning Bullish On The Stock? [Yahoo]
  • Travel Headwinds Result In Attractive Valuation For Global Payments (GPN) Stocks [Yahoo]
  • Here’s Why Analysts Are Still Bullish On Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Despite The Selloff [Yahoo]
  • Wall Street Is Losing Confidence In PVH Corp (PVH), Is The Stock A Buy? [Yahoo]

Sentiment Read

Nonfarm payrolls morning, with the entire jobs slate — payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, participation and claims — landing in a single release window, preceded by Fed speaker Daly and followed by factory orders and durables. Every instrument on the board carries a CHOP regime tag, and prior-day closes sit in the lower third of their ranges for NQ, ES, YM and GC, with RTY the lone mid-range close. The macro flags read as a positively sloped curve alongside loose financial conditions. Single-stock news is a grab-bag of contrarian analyst takes on beaten-down names, while insider filings cluster in NVDA and GOOGL. The overall mood is coiled and catalyst-dependent: a chop tape sitting on its overnight extremes ahead of the one release that can resolve it, with conditional level-reads suspended during each data blackout window.